Raaey Yohannes (Australia)
This is an exciting and at the same time dangerous moment for Ethiopia. It is an exciting time because a lot of promising developments are happening since the appointment of Dr Abiy Ahmed Ali as the Prime Minister of the country. And yet, the situation is also alarming and volatile as uncertainty still looms large and instability and conflict—fuelled by merchants of death—continues to inflict pain on people and bleeds the nation’s economy. There is nothing new here; transitions by their nature, no matter small or large they may be, oscillate between rain and shine, until the ideals, dreams and aspirations of the new becomes the new normal or the “old wine” regroups and, if need be rebranding itself but always and surely with an even greater resolute and unparalleled bitterness and vengeance, revives its political life. That was what we saw in the aftermath of the 2005 election; the question is what lesson was learned (as a nation) since?
I watched Dr Abiy’s recent message delivered on the occasion of Eid Mubarak and on the situation in the Southern part of the country. His message on the latter, as always has been, was humble, pacifying and measured, but at the same time, it was also bold and objective. He reminded Ethiopians that the country’s internal demarcations are just ‘demarcations, designed to serve only the administrative needs of the nation, and by no means mean or represent boarders; and that Ethiopians have the right to call any part of the nation their home. He went even further and acknowledged, in what appears to be the first among members of the governing coalition party in 27 years, that the existing demarcations are besieged with problems and had been attracting grievances from almost all parts of the nation. And he noted, quiet correctly, that such grievances should never be pursued through violence; and that a piecemeal approach to the problem does not bring a lasting solution; it only leads to a domino effect with no end in sight. He stated, again quite correctly, that what the country needs is a Commission which would study the pros and cons of the existing system carefully and come up with a system that would serve the shared and long-term interest of the county and its people. He pledged to form such a Commission, which in my view is not only the right way forward but one that should have been done back in 1991 before embarking the process of re-configuring the state.
It needs to be acknowledged that the process and the haste by which the 1991 administrative structure of post 1991 Ethiopia was set up resembles more like that of the “Berlin Conference” held between European colonial powers back in the 19th century than made by a modern State that was supposed to have the shared interests of the people which it was meant to “serve”. Just to show the parallel Kenya took years of intellectual discussion, community consultation and political process before converting its eight provinces inherited from the colonial era into 47 counties in 2013. Be that as it may, Africans have got a saying for the Ethiopian-style processes: a trouser that you have put while on the run will start falling off while you are still on the run, and that is exactly what is happening now with the “boundary” issue in Ethiopia. The metaphor is relevant in that the problem is not with the trouser (i.e. has nothing to do with the merit of federalism for modern Ethiopia perse), but rather it is in the way the guy (the state) was trying to put his trouser (i.e. the implementation of the federal system). In other words, a functional federal structure (like a trouser) needs care and time to set up.
The aim here is not to lay out a blue print for a future federal Ethiopia; the goal here is rather modest and narrow: it is about Dr Abiy and the ongoing reform and the reformist group. More specifically, about my personal home-take message from the speech and what concerned Ethiopians may consider doing by way of a response. In his recent speech, the Prime Minster couldn’t be any clearer about the danger ahead and the support he needs to sustain the ongoing reform. He didn’t name where the danger was coming from in clear language, but he didn’t need to, TPLF itself put a public statement, so it is clear that Fahrenheit 611 (the Yekatit(6) 11 group/TPLF) and its hard-line supporters are the danger. So, the questions before us is should we show our solidarity and come up with a meaningful support strategy? Or should we remain distant, indifferent and helpless in the same way as in 2005, when Fahrenheit 611 slowly and systematically swept away the hope of the nation?
A global peace march is needed to show solidarity to the ongoing reform in Ethiopia. Granted that Dr Abiy didn’t come to power through a democratic process, but he and the reformist group have shown by their deeds and actions that they hold values and dreams dear to the nation and are the best chance that Ethiopia has got in many years to facilitate change that will hopefully and eventually move the country in the direction of freedom, peace, rule of law and shared prosperity. The peace march will bolster the reformists’ base both at home and abroad (including gaining them the support they need from foreign governments to continue with the reform agenda). And, for groups like Fahrenheit 611 and their supporters, the peace march will show the nations’ determination and the irreversible nature of the reform process. To make the global march effective it will be useful to organise it in the same way as the European New year is welcomed and celebrated across the planet by moving from city to city until it reaches to the last city in the western most side of the globe. Perhaps the exact day for the peace march can be made to coincide with the anniversary of his 100th day in office, both to celebrate the milestone and formally thank him and the reformist group for their vision and what they have done for the country so far.
Peace
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