Felix Horne

Senior Researcher, Horn of Africa

Abiy Ahmed, left, the newly elected chair of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) addresses Ethiopian lawmakers after he was sworn in as the country’s Prime Minister, Monday, April 2, 2018. © AP photo/Mulugeta Ayene
The ascent of Dr. Abiy Ahmed to the post of prime minster in Ethiopia a year ago was a rare positive story in a year filled with grim news globally. Within months of taking office, his administration released tens of thousands of political prisoners, made peace with neighboring Eritrea, took positive first steps to ensure free and independent elections, and welcomed previously banned groups back into Ethiopia. It was an astonishing turnaround in a short period.

But the progress has created new challenges. Ethiopia’s rapid transition away from authoritarianism unleashed waves of dissatisfaction and frustration that had been crushed by the ruling party for decades. If Abiy (Ethiopians are generally referred to by their first names) can’t maintain law and order and come up with a plan to address the causes of that anger without repressive measures, his country’s considerable gains will be threatened.

There aren’t many success stories around the world as nations transition from authoritarianism to democracy. Ethiopia has a chance to become a model, but it will need significant help confronting its challenges.

As Ethiopians have become less afraid of voicing opinions, long-standing grievances have taken on new intensity. Disputes over access to land and complex questions of identity and administrative boundaries have led to open conflicts and score-settling, often along ethnic lines. Dissatisfaction has also been growing over long-standing questions about who gets to govern and manage the rapid growth of the capital, Addis Ababa. The rising tensions across Ethiopia have led to the displacement of more than2 million people since Abiy took office. And as tensions increase, this number is likely to rise.

Social media, meanwhile, has grown in popularity, and it is awash with hate speech. Firearms are flooding into many parts of the country. And local and federal authorities are losing control over security in many parts of the country. It’s a toxic mix with critical nationwide elections coming up in just over a year.

Progress is hampered by the lack of action from Abiy’s government, which has done little to calm inter-ethnic tensions and remedy the underlying issues. And institutions that could resolve such complex grievances are not yet seen as independent enough to address them in a nonpartisan way, following years of ruling party control. And perhaps most worryingly, there’s no evidence that Abiy’s administration has a clear strategy for addressing these growing tensions.

As Abiy’s popularity has waned, so has support for his reform agenda. There is mounting concern that Ethiopia risks becoming ungovernable if conflict and insecurity continue to rise. Some insist that if that happens a return to authoritarianism is the only way to keep the country together. It is not too late for Abiy to turn this situation around and build on the seeds of democracy he nurtured in his first few months in office. But a plan of corrective action, restoration of law and order, and some confidence-building measures are urgently needed from Abiy’s government.

Many Ethiopians living in the diaspora, including in the Los Angeles area, have backed Abiy’s effort at bringing democracy to Ethiopia. Ethiopians living abroad have raised more than $1 million to help some of those displaced by conflict.

Their efforts should be backed by the U.S. and other Western nations who have key long-standing partnerships with Ethiopia, including in the areas of migration, counter-terrorism and economic growth. They need to ensure that Abiy’s experiment with democracy succeeds. Should it fail, there would be dire humanitarian consequences for this country of over 100 million, many of whom protested against bullets and arrests from security forces for years in the hopes of a transition to a more rights-respecting government.

The United States and its allies can best support Ethiopians by continuing to offer praise for the reforms while also asking sometimes difficult questions about how Abiy’s government plans to restore law and order and address underlying grievances, and by determining what role the United States and other allies can play in making this happen. In Abiy, Ethiopia has a leader who, based on available evidence, genuinely wants that transition but may need a helping hand.

The next year is likely to determine how history remembers Abiy — and how democratic principles fare in Ethiopia.

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Several towns along the Addis Ababa- Dessie road are now experiencing security crisis

By Gihon

Ethiopia’s north central part along the Addis Ababa-Dessie road is reduced to a conflict zone after a group of armed groups opened war on residents in several towns.

The conflict has caused road closure to and from Dessie, Kombolcha, Debresina and Debre Berhane towns, among others, according to an army officer in the office of Deputy Chief of Staff, as reported by Fana Broadcasting Corporate.

The officer, he is identified as Colonel Tesfaye Ayalew, told the news sources that the defense force is now working on opening the road closures and restoring calm to the towns affected by the armed groups whose political identity is not disclosed by the Federal or regional government.

Sources in social media with links to the region affected by the security crisis claim that the armed groups are militant wings of Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) who claimed to have separated from the political leadership of the radical Oromo ethno-nationalist group.

Ibsa Dawud led Oromo Liberation Fron (OLF) has issued a statement distancing itself from involvement in the security crisis while the armed group that launched the attacks, including in a church, has also stated that it will no longer accept order for the political leaders of the organization.

Deputy Head of Amhara Region Communications Affairs, Melaku Alamerew, who spoke to Amhara Mass Media Agency on Sunday, said that the cause of the conflict has a lot to do with groups who are working on old agenda and the objective is to broaden difference between ethnic Amhara and other communities in the region.

According to Melaku, the armed groups, who are waging wars in the regions between Ataye (also known as Sebete) to Kemissie which is within Amhara regional state but with special zone status on grounds of language rights, also intend to make the conflict appear like religious one. However, Melaku did not name of the armed groups.

A video footage widely shared on social media shows the armed groups ransacking and plundering Ethiopian church in the region.

Members of Ethiopian Defense force were in the region shortly after security problem broke out in the region on Saturday around 3 p.m. local time.

But residents said, according to Amhara regional state authorities, that the defense force were not protecting them while the armed groups wage their wars and pillage communities. The reason? “They were not given order to take action.”

Solomon Altaye, administrator of Efrata district in the region, told AMMA that heavy gunfire was heard until 9:00 p.m. The armed groups are highly organized and have employed group weaponry and explosives apart from individual assault rifles like AK 47.

Karakore, Kore Meda, Kara Legoma, Lala and Ataye are affected by the security crisis.

Dozens of people are believed to be killed and dozens reportedly taken captives by the armed groups. Exact number seem to be unknown currently. Getachew Bekele, Mayor of Ataye town, said the conflict was between “residents and armed groups” and 9 people have been killed since Saturday, and three people taken hostage, as reported by Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation (EBC).

There is also a report that a branch of Ethiopia’s bank in the town is looted.

On Sunday, residents of Debre Berhane, about 120 kilometers north of Addis Ababa, took to the street to demanding government to protect residents in the region.

Ethiopian National Security Council has issued a statement today, days after war by organized groups caused much damage, regarding the security crisis in Amhara regional state along the Addis Ababa-Dessie road and other parts of the country.

“Loss of life in Kemise and the region is not acceptable …citizen’s safety and enforcing the rule of law is the prime function of government that will not be up for negotiation. Relevant Federal and regional security authorities are given order to take necessary legal measures,” said the statement.

It also said that those involved in the orchestration of the conflict and the responsible for loss of lives and destruction of properties will be held responsible.

Although some politicized Ethiopians tend to see hands of foreign powers in the destabilization of Ethiopia, radical ethnic politics brought about enormous political and security problems to the country as radical ethnic groups are contesting for ethnic land and power.

On Friday, Ethiopian government admitted that ethnic politics constitute the greatest national security concern, rightly and in many ways.

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By Prof. Messay Kebede

“Men make their own history, but they do not make it just as they please; they do not make it under circumstances chosen by themselves, but under circumstances directly encountered, given and transmitted from the past.” (Marx)

That in the year that passed since his rise to premiership, Abiy has accomplished great things, notably in the political field, is undeniable. However, it is equally true that he has bumped up against stubborn hurdles and, in some cases, has unintentionally unleashed destructive forces that were suppressed by the previous regime.

Among the great achievements, those that particularly stand out are: (1) the offering, in lieu of the divisive and discriminatory ethnonationalist ideology of the previous government, of a new vision emphasizing the unity and sovereignty of Ethiopia; (2) the promise and initial implementation of a democratic government fully committed to the realization of an all-embracing prosperity; (3) the unconditional freeing of all political prisoners; (4) the lifting of restrictions (it is true with some exceptions, as in the case of protests over Addis Ababa) on the rights of free speech, peaceful assembly and association; (5) the bringing to an end of the hegemonic rule of the TPLF; (6) the redirecting of the no-war-no-peace situation with Eritrea toward a peaceful and cooperative path; (7) the implementation of some serious efforts to reform institutions in the direction of good governance and accountability. By all accounts, the realization of these remarkable reforms in such a short time and under adverse conditions is an impressive achievement. I say without any reservation that Abiy deserves a resounding “congratulations”!

As would be expected from any attempt to change a country as complex and problem-ridden as Ethiopia, Abiy has also faced challenges that are significant to the point of tarnishing his achievements and slightly diminishing his popularity. His original confidence and unbounded optimism on the great things that he, his party, and the Ethiopian people can accomplish are largely responsible for the setbacks. Under his reassuring and uplifting vision, most people lost sight of the deep and numerous problems besieging Ethiopia after the 27 years of the divisive, corrupt, and ethnic-centered rule of the TPLF. Accordingly, one would reach a more balanced and realistic assessment of Abiy’s achievements if one carefully separates the hurdles that he has inherited from the previous regime from those he himself created as a result of his idealistic vison as well as the steps he did not take to ward off problems issuing from the introduced reforms.

Inherited Impediments

A persistent complaint against Abiy’s government is the inability to prevent massive displacements of people, often proceeded by bloody conflicts between ethnically diverse people sharing a regional space. Yet, blaming Abiy for these setbacks is a misplaced assessment in that it is a one-sided view. True, the protection of peace and the basic rights of people is the major responsibility of the state, but with the proviso that one could assert that Abiy inherited a country that was in a state of relative peace. Need I remind critics that a year ago, amid continuous protests and uprisings, Ethiopia was on the verge of a bloody civil war?

The difference between then and now is not that Abiy failed to safeguard peace, which was never real, but that he resents using the repressive methods of the previous government, partly because of his democratic commitments, partly because he has not yet a firm control over the repressive apparatus of the state. A year ago, the desire to harm and displace ethnically different people was already there, but unable to manifest openly owing to the repressive nature of the government. Moreover, the main focus of the protests a year ago targeted the removal of the TPLF, less so ethnically alien people, as unity was perceived as necessary to achieve the goal. Now that the dictatorial rule of the TPLF has collapsed and is replaced by a government that tries to take seriously its democratic commitments, the perceived contradiction, essentially fueled by extremist groups, between different ethnic groups living in the same region has moved from secondary to primary contradiction.

Another inherited hurdle has to do with the attempt to carry out far-reaching reforms of the state by relying essentially on the structure put in place by the previous government as well as on cadres and officials that served the same government. Naturally, this “old wine in new bottles” policy of change severely limits the spread and deepening of reforms. One might argue that Abiy would have avoided this obstacle had he appealed to competent and reformist people outside his party. Yes, but the whole question is to know whether this attempt to bypass the EPRDF would not have undermined his own position as head of the government. Whether one likes it or not, the EPRDF is at present the only party capable of running the central government and regional states. Any attempt to circumvent it will certainly translate in a chaotic situation that can easily generate into open conflicts between various ethnic groups. Abiy would put himself in a much worse situation if he antagonized the cadres and officials of the EPRDF, not to mention the fact that he would deprive himself of the only instrument by which he could introduce a modicum of change in a relatively peaceful manner.

Among the inherited hurdles, one that must be kept at the forefront is the complicating factor arising from the fact that the TPLF was forced to retreat in its own regional stronghold but was not completely defeated. To all appearances, it is still engaged in the task of undermining Abiy’s government by using various means in the hope of regaining its previous hegemonic position. The trouble is that all those diverse groups opposing Abiy for various reasons, including the extremists inside and outside the EPRDF, can count on the financial and military support of the TPLF. In the eyes of the TPLF, nothing works better for its eventual return to the pinnacle of power than the proliferation of groups subverting the government from inside, notably by challenging its ability to maintain peace among the various ethnic groups.

Last but not least, the appalling state of the economy remains the major strangler that Abiy inherited from the previous government. The peaceful implementation of reforms in a situation characterized by high unemployment, especially among young people, severe shortage of hard currency and essential goods, high rate of inflation, low wages, and all this combined with abhorrent wastages, rampant corruption, and illegal enrichment of the few, is little liable to reduce the tensions running through the various strata of Ethiopian society. This deep-seated discontent over the lack of economic advancement as well as over unequal access to opportunities is the very substance that feeds on extremism, in particular in the form of rising tension between ethnic groups. The reason for the rise of tensions is that a time of change is perceived as a time of opportunity, and so ignites competition over scarce resources. The dichotomy them/us flowing from ethnicism, to the extent that it construes people as aliens, comes in handy to justify their displacement and the grabbing of their possessions.

New Complications

The fact that the Oromo people, in particular the youth, have been decisively instrumental in the overthrow of the hegemony of the TPLF, the fact also that the initiative and the leadership of the change came from members of the Oromo wing of the governing coalition, namely, the ODP, led immediately to the interpretation that the Oromo elite had finally seized power in Ethiopia. Even though from the get-go Abiy emphasized Ethiopianness and presented himself more as the Prime Minister of all Ethiopians than the leader of an ethnic group, the image of the upper strata of Oromo people replacing the hegemony of the Tigrean elite was not only created, but was also widely shared by Oromo elites, regardless of their political affiliations.

It is my contention that, of all the dangers threatening Ethiopia, this hegemonic ambition of Oromo elites is by far the most perilous both for the continuation of reforms and the maintenance of peace. The ambition takes us back where we were for the last 27 years and its outcome, namely, the rise of the whole country against the political and economic supremacy of the TPLF. Simply put, this longing for supreme control of Oromo elites, unless it is quickly curtailed, will bring to a halt whatever remains of the reformist will, as those in power will be consumed in the task of protecting their new-found supremacy, which they can do so only by turning to a dictatorial form of government animated by a retaliatory intent.

A recent sign of things to come is the position of Oromo elites on the status of Addis Ababa. The call for Addis Ababa to be integrated into the Oromo regional state regardless of what its inhabitants think and in contravention to the Constitution guaranteeing the autonomy and self-governing rights of the federal capital does no more than reflect a burgeoning tendency to impose one’s own view, not because it is right, but because it is the prerogative of the winning party, just as did the TPLF during its 27 years of dictatorial rule. I see no path to reform unless Abiy and his followers decidedly combat this rising domineering tendency among Oromo elites. This is the time to say with Marx, “history repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.”

According to many activists and leaders of opposition parties, the major source of Ethiopia’s numerous problems is the existing system of ethnic federalism. They add that no reform will bear its intended fruits so long as ethnic federalism is not done away with or significantly altered. In other words, the explanation for the difficulties that Abiy is facing in his attempt to reform the Ethiopian society is his reluctance to take the bull of ethnic federalism by the horns and replaces it by a political system centered on citizenship rather than ethnicity. As tempting as this solution is, it is heedless of the deep-seated nature of ethnic identity in Ethiopia. Instead of strengthening Abiy, such a proposal weakens his standing in his own party when it is well known that the support of his party is essential for the continuance of his premiership. On the other hand, however, it is also true that Abiy cannot implement a pan-Ethiopian agenda if he is reduced to being just a chief of an ethnic group, whatever the importance of the group may be.

All this reveals a tenacious political conundrum made of two incompatible tendencies: pan-Ethiopianism, on the one hand, ethnicity, on the other. Any solution that reasons in terms of either/or is awfully inadequate to the challenge at hand. The proposal to simply eliminate the ethnic territories and states is little realistic given the entrenched nature of ethnic identity, which is also reflective of definite localized interests. Assuming that it is possible to put in place in today’s Ethiopia a government capable of going against the ethnically demarcated territories, the suggested solution would require the use of violent and totalitarian means, not to mention the fact that its success in pacifying the country would be anything but assured. On the other hand, those who rule out pan-Ethiopianism in favor of the preservation of the existing ethnic federalism fail to admit the untenability of the present situation: without the cultural and political sustenance of a shared identity and common destiny, the fragmentation along ethnic lines, in addition to promising more conflicts and displacements of people, will increasingly weaken and finally terminate the unity of the country, an outcome that will certainly put the entire Horn of Africa to fire and blood.

Needed, therefore, is the path of moderation, the very one that combines the imperative of national unity with the reality of ethnic territories and identifications. As I have already suggested in several write-ups, the moderate solution advocates the framing of institutional devices in a political system in which centripetal forces (national institutions and symbols) counter centrifugal forces (ethnicity). While large autonomy and self-rule should satisfy ethnicity, federal political institutions making national positions dependent on moderation should encourage unity. One pertinent way of balancing centripetal and centrifugal forces is the creation of a presidential figure with large political and symbolic meanings. Among other prerogatives, the president could, for instance, nominate the prime minister, who then assumes the function of a conductor generating majority support from an ethnically diverse parliamentary representation. If, unlike regional positions that depend on regional elections, the election of the president emanates from universal suffrage and is decided by majority vote of all people from all ethnic regions, some such arrangement strongly encourages moderation, but also creates national figures. Universal suffrage and majority vote, in addition to promoting the expression of individual rights in conjunction with group rights, generate national political figures with moderate views, since candidates for the presidential office will have to become attractive to voters outside their ethnic groups.

Whatever be the solution deemed appropriate to achieve the imperative balance between national unity and ethnic identity, one must never lose sight of the need to conform reforms to the concrete conditions of the country. Any discrepancy between the projected reforms and the actual conditions of the country will only add complications that can be as challenging as the structural problems. When political leaders raise hopes that they cannot fulfil, they exasperate existing frustrations, thereby preparing the ground for the spread of extremist messages. For instance, democracy is a word that Ethiopian political leaders, activists, observers, and analysists profusely use but understand in different ways. On top of being presented as a magical panacea to all of Ethiopia’s problems, democracy signifies nothing operational, as it is divorced of the concrete conditions prevailing in the country. As a result, it translates into an attitude of negativity among educated elites and the people at large, with the consequence that they would settle for nothing else but the ideal or the absolute.

This high-bar approach easily forgets that the democratic mind is not an innate disposition, but a state of mind that is acquired through a protracted process of learning fraught with ups and downs and realized through a piece-by-piece build-up of institutional fences against the natural human, as witnessed by the long and zigzagging history of the democratization of Western countries. Like in other African countries, the problem in Ethiopia is that Ethiopians do not build up; instead, they want to import from the West the already-made with the intent of implementing it as is in a completely different context.

Is it then surprising if, wearing an attire that is not tailor-made, Ethiopians constantly stumble in their new-found freedom? From hate speech through revengeful taunts to extremist threats, the whole array of political infantilism is spitting its poison in the hope of dragging the people into its crusade of hate. So long as this new-found freedom, which can only be crude because it has not yet learned to put limitations on itself, is confined to marginal groups, the danger remains minimal. Unfortunately, left unchecked, the virus could spread and reach the people at large: this is all the more probable the more we keep in mind that the people of Ethiopia have never breathed the air of freedom nor experienced any form of self-rule. This is to say that reformers in Ethiopia will alleviate their problems if they think of democracy, not in the absolute, but in evolutionary terms by placing protective limitations until such time it can regulate itself.

Messay Kebede

University of Dayton

https://udayton.academia.edu/MessayKebede

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By Dawit W Giorgis *

‘Absolutely Oversold’

As instability and violence spreads across much of Ethiopia, with most recent incidents getting close to the capital in Northern Showa, it is becoming a matter of grave concern to Ethiopians and regional governments, whether there will be a full fledged civil war in Ethiopia. All eyes are on Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed who came to power on an agenda of peaceful change. During his one-year premiership the country’s situation has gone down from bad to worse with a serious possibility of a civil war.

When Herbert Hoover, the 31^st President of the USA, began his term in 1928, he was extremely popular.   However, soon after, the Great Depression dominated his presidency.  He is now mostly remembered for his failure to respond to the crisis.  He purportedly said:

“My friends have made the American people think of me as sort of superman, able to cope successfully with the most difficult and complicated problems. They expect the impossible from me and should there arise in the land conditions with which the political machinery is unable to cope; I will be the one to suffer…. I have been  “absolutely oversold”.

The single most significant criticism levied against Herbert Hoover is that he did not do enough to combat the Great Depression. Many historians believe Hoover underestimated the severity of the Great Depression. Hoover believed it would get better, but instead it just kept getting worse. Toward the end of his term (he served between 1929-1933), Hoover tried to address the core economic issues, but it was too little too late. Despite Hoover’s last-minute attempt, many Americans believe that he was the man who stood by idly when the country was falling apart.  He served only one term.

Ably was oversold and considered as a superman. Abiy emerged at a time when people were under siege, very insecure and civil war seemed eminent. Abiy’s words and some of his actions were soothing and gave hope to people. Like Hoover, Abiy underestimated the severity and complexity of the problems of Ethiopia.  But unlike Hoover, instead of humility Abiy emberaced the idea that he was being seen as the great redeemer of this troubled nation.  Emperor Haile Selassie, Mengistu and Meles all believed that they were super human beings.  They refused to listen to the warning signs. All faced an ignominious   end and left a legacy that has today put the country on the brinks. Yesterday’s rulers had the integrity of the country as a primary agenda. In this, they did not fail their people. This generation took the mantle of leadership to rectify the mistakes of the past and build on the positive factors that have kept this country united.  This generation has failed in delivering this and put the very existence of the country at peril. Ethiopia has now become a rudderless ship floating on troubled water

Ethiopia is a Failed State

Ethiopia is a failed state by all indicators. The concern now is how intense and how tragic it is going to be. The warning signs were there for a few years. Ethnic politics has been bleeding the country and now there are fears that the country might collapse. The leaders and the elites knew that the ethnic politics that has been institutionalized by the ruling party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) for the last 28 years was the single cause of discontent and dis enfranchisement that brought the country now to its knees. Neither Meles Zenawi nor his successor wanted to address this issue. When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power, people felt that he was going to be the redeemer of this troubled country. That was exactly one year ago. The euphoria has now evaporated and Ethiopia is fast becoming a failed state in its truest sense.

A failed state includes:

• Lack of control over armed forces, militias, etc. within the country
• Lack of free participation in politics
• Lack of control over territory within national borders
• Massive displacements
• Failure to provide public services food, health, shelter etc.…
• High level of corruption
• High numbers of refugees seeking to leave
• No or poorly functioning economy

Ethiopia has all the above. States fail because they can no longer provide services. . The most critical is human security If they cannot provide security and protection to the people the governments lose legitimacy in the eyes of the public and people take necessary steps individually or in groups including taking the law into their hands. Other internal and external groups take advantage of the situation and the violence gets worse. The competition for the control of  resources  creates war lords with a plethora of hate directed either at the government or at each other.

Addis Standard of March 26 states:

“The Ethiopian government, and its regional states’ authorities, are increasingly facing challenges to enforce order and security control over the territory of the federation. Several areas are allegedly not administratively ‘connected’ to the center, but run by local groupings who have either kicked out or breached with the party network of the ruling EPRDF coalition”[ii]

The conflict and violence has spread across Oromia region, Northern Showa, Wollo, and Southern Ethiopia and in many other parts of the country. The safest place now, ironically, is Tigray. Criminal gangs mostly associated with OLF, Querro (Oromo youth movement) and groups that are not clearly identified, roam the country freely committing atrocious crimes. People have become used to killings, roadblocks, robbery, displacements, destruction of homes and houses. They have become so routine that people just pray that the worst would not come. But the worst is closing in.

A new founded human rights organization in the capital, Addis Abeba, has issued a report on human rights abuses under PM Abiy’s government, in Addis Abeba, the capital. It states on its web site: “This document is intended to serve as a chronological catalogue of Human Rights Abuses and Gross Negligence of Duty on

The part of the Ethiopian government under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed”

The Outline of the Report is:

• The irregular appointment of a mayor in Addis Abeba and its fall out
• The Burayu Massacre and its fall outs
• The imprisonment of individuals seeking to establish a civic advocacy group in Addis Abeba
• The Addis Abeba resident identity card scandal
• The Legetafo displacement of people by government
• The Addis Abeba question
• Demographic engineering

These incidents, taking place in the heart of the country, took the already chaotic nation to another level. The silence of the Prime Minister in most of these incidents was baffling as well. It created the perception that the country was leaderless. A leader of a country in crisis makes hard decisions that are in the best interest of the country. A leader does not allow things to happen on their own. A leader, even in the present loose federal system of Ethiopia, must have a degree of control. PM Abiy is clearly not in control. The central government of Ethiopia today is at its weakest.

The Africa Institute for Strategic and Security Studies (AISSS) warned Ethiopian land regional leaders, numerous times, of the dangers that Ethiopia was facing and the direct impact it would have on regional stability.  AISSS sees Ethiopia’s current situation as a threat to stability in the Horn of Africa and beyond. A civil war in Ethiopia will create unprecedented tragedy and turmoil that will reverberate across the continent and beyond. Allowing armed combatants to enter the country without a clear agreement between the government and the armed combatants was one huge mistake. I attended a meeting where the CEO of the Reintegration Project Office  (Demobilization and Reintegration of Ex Combatants) in the office of the Prime Minster  who informed us that there were no written agreements between the government and the parties to the conflict. This is one of the gross mistakes that led to the current crisis. The militants who were supposed to be demobilized and reintegrated into the society have been allowed to enter the country but have not yet laid down their arms and have not gone through a process that would allow them to reintegrate in the society and live a normal life. One of the senior opposition leaders, Neamin Zeleke,  seriously complained about the government’s unwillingness or incapacity to treat the combatants humanly and in such a way that they don’t become threats to the security of the country. Now some have become real threats. There are several experiences on the subject of demobilization in Africa. The government chose not to seek advice or support.

Not willing or being unable to have a clear road map was another most serious issue that was not in the list of the priorities of the PM.  A road map is a necessary step to begin a transition. With so many of the fundamental issues unaddressed and the leadership unwilling to take bold measures it was not much of  surprise that the country was heading towards uncharted territory.  The government was not prepared to listen and act when the early warning were there for everybody to to see with reports from many corners of Ethiopia and the region.

Today Ethiopia is definitely in the category of the few failed states in Africa. The expert on failed states Robert Rotberg writes on Princeton University Press (The Failure and Collapse of Nation-States):

“Failed states are tense, deeply conflicted, dangerous, and contested bitterly by warring factions. In most failed states, government troops battle armed revolts led by one or more rivals. Occasionally, the official authorities in a failed state face two or more insurgencies, varieties of civil unrest, different degrees of communal discontent, and a plethora of dissent directed at the state and at groups within the state”

The central government has lost control of most of the regions and has not been able to perform the basic functions of a government. People have fallen victim to competing factions and criminal gangs. It is prudent as well to suspect that there could be foreign hands in all these. Civil war is looming over Ethiopia, in the most militarized zone in the world, that can possibly change into a proxy war with many foreign stake holders trying to influence situation towards their own interest.

The Fragile States Index (FSI) (earlier known as the Failed Sates Index): ‘is an annual ranking of 178 countries. Based on the different pressures they face that impact their levels of Fragility. The Index is based on The Fund for Peace’s proprietary, Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) analytical approach. Based on comprehensive social science methodology, three primary streams of data — quantitative, qualitative, and expert validation — are triangulated and subjected to critical review to obtain final scores for the FSI.

The fragile states index shows consistently, since 2007 that Ethiopia is one of the least dysfunctional states in the world. The failed states index prepared by the reputable Fund for Peace institute shows: 2007-17th, 2008-16th, 2009 16th, 2010 -15th, 2011-20th, 2012-17th, and 2013-19th, 2104-19th, 2015-19th. 2017-15, 2018-15. The 2019 report is expected to be worse. For now, the countries ahead of it are countries like Syria, Yemen, Somalia, South Sudan, Afghanistan, DRC, and CAR all are in severe or state of low intensity war. If situation is allowed to continue Ethiopia will be ahead of all above.

The second most populated nation in Africa with over 100 million people, poverty ridden, insecure, unstable and dysfunctional with strategic location and resources will certainly ignite regional conflict and proxy wars. Western countries had falsely   anointed Ethiopia as a stable country with the fastest growing economy in the continent. The facts are clearer now than ever: Ethiopia is a failed state nearing complete collapse.

Ethiopia has the highest number of internally displaced people in 2018 with 3 million. ( With more displaced people in 2019 the figure is nearing 4 million)  uprooted from their homes as a result of the conflicts. 1.4 million Ethiopians fled their homes in 2018, while 1.2 million Syrians left.

The Guardian has this to say on most recent internal displacements:

“One settlement, in the village of Gotiti, hosts 20-30,000 ethnic Gedeos who have been denied humanitarian assistance – above all food aid – since last August. More than a million Ethiopians were forced from their homes by ethnic violence in 2018 – the highest number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) of any country last year. The worst of it took place in the south, where an estimated 800,000 mostly ethnic Gedeos fled the district of West Guji in Oromia, the country’s largest region. This is a higher number, and over a shorter period of time, than occurred at the height of Myanmar’s Rohingya crisis in 2017….The conflict looked, on the surface, like a Malthusian eruption – in which population outstrips food supply. Gedeos and Guji Oromos share some of the country’s most densely populated farmland, and both groups are fast growing in number. But gruesome reports of lynchings, rapes and beheadings, and of complicity among local officials, police and militia, makes it seem more like organized ethnic cleansing than an ordinary tribal clash”

The constitution   established by the EPRDF allows some ethnic groups to have their own regions (Amhara, Oromia, Tigray, Somali, Gambella, Afar) Ethiopia’s more than 80 ethnic groups are demanding to have their own regional governments. In all of these regions people who are not considered not to belong originally from that particular area are being forcibly displaced.  Meskerem Abera explains in gruesome details of the slaughtering and torturing of many, recently in Southern Ethiopia

Hundreds of years of tolerance and peaceful co-existence amongst the colorful diversity of Ethiopians is crumbling right in front of  PM Abiy who had come to power with a slogan of love and togetherness. These slogans are ringing hollow in the face of these brutalities.  There are chilling messages of death and destruction coming from many corners with pervasive disorder that threatens the survival of Ethiopia, as we know it today.

Below-average October-to-December ‘belg’ rains in Southern Ethiopia has reduced the availability of water and pasture and slowed the recovery of some herders, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). As a result, vulnerable populations in pastoral areas are expected to experience Crisis—IPC 3—levels of acute food insecurity through May, FEWS NET reports.

The February USAID food Security report gives a very gloomy picture for the coming months in Ethiopia:

“Insecurity throughout Ethiopia continues to prompt population displacement, generate humanitarian needs, and hinder relief organizations from delivering life-saving assistance. More than 80 percent of the 2.9 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) identified throughout the country have cited conflict as the primary driver of displacement. Humanitarian agencies are providing assistance to vulnerable populations as security conditions and other access constraints, such as poor infrastructure, permit.  Below-average October-to-December ‘belg’ rains in Southern Ethiopia has reduced the availability of water and pasture and slowed the recovery of some herders, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).”

This is what is called complex emergency: the combination of natural (drought) and manmade disaster (conflict and forced displacement) This situation will further exasperate the already fragile security situation as millions more are displaced and the competition for scarce resources intensifies. Ethiopia is the second largest borrower from China next to Angola with 13.7 billion dollars in debt according to the 2018 report.  Moreover there are rumors that Ethiopia has defaulted payments of this loan,

“The intensifying repayment risks from the Ethiopian government’s debt reaching 59 percent of GDP is worrying investors,” China’s mission to the African Union in Addis Ababa said on its website in July. “It said that Chinese investment in the country was cooling and that the China Export and Credit Insurance Corp was reducing the scale of its investment there.”

Governor Yinager Dessie on his deliberation on the performance of the Central Bank to the Parliament Finance Standing Committee on 27 March 2019, has confirmed Ethiopia’s export earning is 1.64 billion while the import is 10.5 billion USD, which shows a deficit around 5000 percent. Even with huge import export deficit the country is suffering from shortage of basic essentials like medicine and raw material.  According to the Amharic weekly The ‘Reporter’ of March 31, the governor of the Central Bank stated that the foreign exchange reserve is entirely low and at this moment the country can only afford to import medicine and fuel only and that very cautiously.  He stated that the foreign exchange that the country has now comes from remittances, Ethiopian Airlines and foreign loans and grants. Unless the country gets more loans the country will have no capacity to do anything else he stated.  In other words the governor told the parliament the country is bankrupt.

With the wide spread insecurity and restrictions of movement and increasing loss of confidence over the state of the  nation,  investors are becoming reluctant to put their money in Ethiopia. The governor also stated that the 100-year-old Development Bank of Ethiopia is also near to bankruptcy. He stated, of the 46.17 billon Ethiopian birr it has loaned, 39.45 % is irrecoverable showing the extent of the corruption in the country.  He stated the bank has lost 344 million in the first 3 months of the current financial year. He concludes that the bank does not even have the capacity to litigate the matter and recover the money.

 The Jawar Phenomenon

PM Ably seems to have taken a calculated decision to play the ethnic card to perhaps appease the radicals within his party.    For certain, his ethnic base is fired up and their expectations are high.  His colleague Jawar Mohamed, another fiery demagogue who preaches ethnic and religious extremism has been invited from the USA, Minnesota State, where he was based to operate legally in Ethiopia.  Oromo Media Network (OMN) has millions of followers. Despite requests by millions of Ethiopians for the closure of this media out let the PM has never criticized the station let alone order its closure.

Abiy has allowed Jawar Mohamed, the CEO, OMN legally registered in Ethiopia to spread ethnic and religiously motivated hate speech. PM Abiy’s tolerance of Jawar is perplexing. Giving unchecked political power to extremists like Jawar can only further exacerbate the already tense political environment. Some political observers suspect that there is either an explicit or implicit understanding between the PM and Jawar. If that is the case, PM Abiy is allowing Jawar’s extreme voice to influence the youth, particularly in the Oromo region. In any other country Jawar would have ended up in prison and prosecuted for crimes of incitements and possibly for terrorism.

As I wrote in an earlier article, OMN reminds me of Radio Television Libre des Milles Collines (RTLM), the hate radio that was instrumental in the Rwandan Genocide. “It’s stated aim was “to create harmonious development in Rwandese society” but nothing could have been further from the truth. It was set up and financed by Hutu extremists to prepare the people of Rwanda for genocide by demonizing the Tutsi and encouraging hate and violence. Recognized the danger and asked for international help in shutting down the broadcast.  But it was impossible to persuade Western diplomats to take it seriously. They dismissed the station as a joke” General Romeo Dallaire, the Canadian commander of the UN peacekeeping operation in Rwanda at the time of the genocide, said: “Simply jamming [the] broadcasts and replacing them with messages of peace and reconciliation would have had a significant impact on the course of events.” His advice was ignored and the UN and the international community regrets with great humility and embarrassment that, had it acted earlier the genocide would probably have not taken place. There is a red line between freedom of expression and hate speech, oratory and incitement. It is well established in the international legal instruments.

Jawar has been caught on tape telling his crowd threatening Christians. Like the ‘interhamway’of Rwanda, Jawar has recruited young Oromo’s who call themselves “Querros’ to do the dirty work of killing, plundering and creating an atmosphere of fear in the nation. One Ethiopian Mekuria  writes on ECDF website:

“The image of Querro youngsters brandishing machetes and other homemade weapons at was a pitiful sight to see. It was reminiscent more of the notorious Boko Haram than the peaceful youngsters with their arms crossed over their heads in protest. That Ethiopians had come to love and appreciate. Querro youngsters are Ethiopian who desire better than being reduced to doing the dirty work of others and getting tarnished in the process. They have camp Jawar to thank for it “

Thousands of Ethiopians have signed a petition to the Minnesota attorney General and US attorney general to ‘ban OMN media for inciting ethnic violence in Ethiopia and hold its director Jawar Mohamed responsible”

Ethiopians are noticeably weary of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government for failing to control widespread anarchism which seem to emanate from dual power exercised in the country since he became the prime minister of Ethiopia.  The ‘Querro’ movement led by Jawar Mohammed is asserting de facto power and disrupting government power in different parts of Ethiopia at will.

The Way Forward

There is no way out of this looming tragedy without bold, well-considered decisions. There will be severe consequences to these decisions but it is better to manage the consequences of the right and reasonable decisions, which have the support of the majority than to manage a civil war and genocide.  PM Abiy  did not realize that people were getting tired with his lectures on love and ‘medemer’, his slogan, which means togetherness. Some people say that his preaching on love and ‘medemer’ were all about optics; that it was ploy to lure people to his side.  At times he seems not to be in the real world where love and ‘medemer’   cannot be a policy of governing. In political realism nation states are motivated by national interest (the needs of the people). Such abstract moral values can be used to reinforce the pursuit of national interests but they cannot be policies.  These are    mythical concepts and slogans that are not in the domain of real politics. These are in the domain of our spiritual leaders.   Political leaders have to be pragmatic. The theory that a leader develops must be feasible and applicable. Pragmatism focuses on logic and reason and not abstract ideas.  What are needed are bold decisions. PM should start by pulling himself out of ethnic politics and set an example and establish an Ethiopian agenda. It will not be an easy decision but is a necessary one. That is the problme of leaders who assume power in time of crisis.

PM Abiy has promised general election one year from now. It is generally accepted that elections cannot take place under this situation. Even if it were possible to conduct elections under this same constitution, which the people have fought for decades to remove, it will not solve the complex problem of Ethiopia.

Many Ethiopians fear that they have no options. There are options. People should not feel helpless. Options are born out of free open dialogue and discussions and this should start before it is too late. Non-democratic or totalitarian governments like the one in place in Ethiopia, perpetuate fear and insecurity to make people believe that there are no other options except the status quo. In such countries there are no readily available options. Such has been the history of Ethiopia and so many other countries. But that is no reason for not freely and openly discussing the problems in a very transparent manner.  Options are born out of such discussions. The institutions of civil society are the critical factors in making this possible. Civil society and free press have to campaign to create such forums and present options to the critical situation in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia needs a leader who campaigns for Ethiopian unity and ‘Ethiopiawinet’ Ethiopia needs a bold, courageous, imaginative and transparent president with humility.  Ably came to power with simple solutions to the complex problems of Ethiopia.  The rebellion over the last few years that cost the lives of many was all about transition to democracy. Ably has been given the chance through an overwhelming support unprecedented in Ethiopian history. He has failed to use this universal support to implement an agenda that rejects extremism and ethnic politics.

The problem of Ethiopia was and is complex and needs a leader with a broad agenda, wisdom and the capacity and willingness to consult, dialogue and vigorously campaign for the values that binds the people of Ethiopia.  It needs a leader that listens not one that lectures. It needs a leader who can have a pool of experts around him/her, people of all ages and expertise, people who can challenge him/her and a leader willing to learn. The PM wants to keep the constitution and the parliament and essentially keep the status quo. He  promised to make some changes to the constitution after election. But that is not what the people want. They want a new constitution and election in accordance with a new constitution prepared and approved by the people, not vice versa as happened before under PM Meles Zenawi.  PM Abiy wants to keep the constitution because that is the position of his party. Changing the constitution would most probably result in the abolishing of ethnic federalism, which his party does not want.  PM Abiy cannot serve two agendas, his ethnic based party (ODP) and the Ethiopian agenda. That is where wisdom and courage come to play in making the hard choices, in the interest of peace and stability.

That is why the first and most palatable choice for the country is to for PM Abiy to resign and the EPRDF to select a leader who is non Oromo and non-Amhara and lead the country to transition. If PM Abiy wants to save himself and the country the best exit for him is this option. This will require a sober assessment of the situation and the consequences of not doing so.  If PM Abiy and ODP refuse to accept this option, the PM can still go for a second option which I outlined in the road map I presented at the 7^th Vision Ethiopia conference last December in Addis Abeba. This requires the PM to abolish the constitution, dissolve parliament and lead a transitional government by decree. This will require from him   to abandon the ethnic agenda, take a unifying agenda, and lead the transition through a road map established, not by him, but by a newly elected transitional peoples’ assembly.  These are bold moves and will require a lot of backdoor negotiations and open discussions with ethnic leaders and the public.

If this cannot be done, the last resort is to demand the establishment of a transitional government and election under the auspices of the AU, the UN and the international community and hope that the international community will pressure the parties to this dispute to cooperate, knowing fully well the consequences of civil war in the country.

Conclusion

PM Abiy Ahmed was in Rwanda last week on the occasion of the 25^th anniversary of the Rwandan genocide. I hope that he gets more aware of the consequences of a hate filled political environment like there was in Rwanda just before the genocide of a million Rwandese. I was there 25 years ago.  It was the most sobering and most agonizing experience of my life. I learnt my lessons. I hope PM Ahmed does come back with lessons learnt. He was there as a UN peacekeeper when he was probably in his early twenties.  He might have been too young or too busy with soldiering to learn about the root causes of the genocide. Now that he has, people expect from him drastic decisions to prevent Ethiopia from such a gruesome experience.  That was what President Paul Kagame did. He took control of the country by making the necessary decisions to prevent further chaos and genocide. His measures were unpopular in some quarters but he has made Rwanda become one of the shining examples of success after a traumatic experience. He was a tough leader, the kind of leader that the situation needed. He had equally capable people and committed people around him.

The Rwandan genocide was preventable. It was not the result of an uncontrolled hate and rage. It was neither the wrath of God. Like in Ethiopia it was the result of the deliberate choice of the elites who preached hate, fear and division to keep them in power.  Human Rights Watch of 2017 says:

“They seized control of the state and used its machinery and its authority to carry out the slaughter. Like the organizers, the killers who executed the genocide were not demons no automatons responding to ineluctable forces. They were people who chose to do evil. … These few power holders transformed the strategy of ethnic division into genocide. Tens of thousands, swayed by fear, hatred, or hope of profit, made the choice quickly and easily. They were the first to kill, rape, rob and destroy. They attacked Tutsi frequently and until the very end, without doubt or remorse. Many made their victims suffer horribly and enjoyed doing so.”

The Rwandan genocide forced the world to recognize the potential of people to commit genocide even after the world unanimously declared loud and clear ‘Never Again’ after the holocaust during the Second World War.  Leaders have enormous responsibilities during these fragile times in Ethiopia. They need more political wisdom and a huge sense of responsibility.

I was one those who wrote an article calling upon the people of Ethiopia to Rally Around  Prime Minister Abiy. Like many people, after closely looking at the situation I found it necessary to critique the polices of the PM over the last one year. It is time to speak out. I wrote then, May 31, 2018, in most Ethiopian web sites:

“In the end success will depend on the crossing of a fear barrier by Dr. Ably and the people around him and his faith in the Ethiopian people. The Ethiopian people have crossed that fear. The question now is ‘Can PM Ably and his team cross that fear and take the bold steps towards democratic transition? If he fails he has no one to blame except himself. The majority of the people are more united than ever and they will not hesitate to continue the struggle for a final and lasting outcome.”

END

*Dawit Wolde Giorgis is a Visiting Scholar at Boston University,  African Studies Center

14 https://addisstandard.com/opinion-putting-humpty-dumpty-together-again-the-restoration-of-eprd

[iii] Meskererm Abera, Sidama Poltics, Debub ( Southern Regio)Politics , March 28,2018

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By SALMA ISLAM

Alternately threatening and negotiating, Egyptian officials have sought to scuttle or minimize the impact of the planned 6,450-megawatt facility. But the project has moved inexorably forward and construction, slowed by contracting corruption allegations, is nearly two-thirds complete.

With the dam now due to open next year, the specter of a military confrontation has waned and negotiators are instead debating how long the process of filling the dam should take — with Ethiopia planning to fill it in three years and Egypt asking for 15 years to better prepare for the future.

“We don’t have any other resource in Egypt except the Nile water,” warned professor Nader Nour el-Din, a soil and water expert at Cairo University. “This will harm Egypt.”

It has long been said that without the River Nile, there would be no Egypt.

Running the length of the country from its southern border with Sudan north into the Mediterranean Sea, the Nile provides more than 90% of Egypt’s fresh water. Though mainly a desert, Egypt has been gifted with a fertile strip along the Nile for farming and water. Roughly 95% of the nation’s people reside in the Nile Valley.

With the country already facing major water and food scarcities, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD — set to be the biggest hydropower plant in Africa — is regarded as a national security threat as well as a stain on Egypt’s historical dominance of the revered river.

Some experts have predicted a loss of more than half the farmland in a country with a population approaching 100 million.

“Egypt produces only 50% of the food needs of the total population,” said Gamal Siam, an agricultural economist at Cairo University. “Even without the dam, we will have more shortages because with the increasing population the water available for irrigation is decreasing.”

As it stands, Egypt is already below the United Nations’ water poverty threshold, with the dam endangering the livelihoods of half of the country’s population who work directly or indirectly in agriculture, said Nour el-Din, the soil and water expert.

In Ethiopia, on the other hand, the $4-billion dam is being hailed as a national achievement as big as Aswan High Dam in Egypt was in the 1960s. Nour el-Din insists it’s unfair to compare the two.

“We are a downstream country,” he said, “we are the end country and there is no other country after us.”

Egypt gets 85% of its water share from the Blue Nile that has its source in Ethiopia’s Lake Tana and just 15% from the White Nile. The two tributaries meet in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, before the river moves on to Egypt.

Egyptians have for centuries enjoyed the lion’s share of the Nile’s water, a status confirmed by colonial-era agreements of 1902 and 1929 made by the British and a 1959 bilateral treaty between Egypt and Sudan. The latter allocated Egypt 55.5 billion cubic meters of Nile water and Sudan 18.5 billion cubic meters.

The Ethiopians have long viewed the status quo as unfair as they seek to develop their own impoverished economy.

“Unfortunately, the Nile has never been governed by law nor common sense,” said Wondwosen Seide, an Ethiopian analyst based in Sweden, who was previously at the Intergovernmental Authority on Development — an eight-country trade bloc in Africa.

In 2011, while Egypt was in the throes of revolution, Ethiopia announced the dam construction project, aimed at extending electricity to the roughly 60% of Ethiopia’s population that has no access. The goal has been to transform Ethiopia into the region’s primary energy exporter.

The potential shift in geopolitics in northeast Africa resulted in a war of words.

In 2013, Egypt’s then-president, Mohamed Morsi, warned that if his country’s Nile water “diminishes by one drop then our blood is the alternative,” though he insisted he wasn’t “calling for war.”

“Between 2011 and 2017, Egyptian and Ethiopian leaders framed the GERD dispute in stark, hyper-nationalist terms and exchanged belligerent threats,” a report published last month by the International Crisis Group said. “Politicians in Cairo called for sabotaging the dam. Media outlets in both countries compared the two sides’ military strength in anticipation of hostilities.”

Over time, though, threats of bloodshed have receded.

“I don’t think both the Egyptian and Ethiopian government think ‘Nile War’ is possible. They have come a long way and passed a point of no return as far as war is concerned,” said Seide, the Ethiopian analyst.

The tension is “overblown,” agreed Tim Deedy, a researcher focusing on security issues at the Washington-based Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy think tank.

The election last year of Ethiopia’s new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, further minimized the possibility of conflict.

“Compared to his predecessor, Ahmed has proven much more successful in facilitating successful negotiations with Egypt and Sudan,” Deedy said, as evidenced by a tripartite agreement signed in May 2018 to continue dialogue in meetings every six months.

Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia also agreed to set up a scientific committee to analyze the effects of filling the dam.

During a news conference in Cairo last year, Ahmed promised Egyptians, “I swear to God, we will never hurt you,” after Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Sisi pressed him to swear in front of the Egyptian people that he wouldn’t harm the country’s Nile water share.

Sisi, for his part, conceded there was no military solution and called ongoing talks a “breakthrough,” expressing a sense of optimism echoed by Sileshi Bekele, Ethiopia’s minister for energy, irrigation and electricity. “We managed to actually find a number of win-win approaches,” he said.

But progress toward an agreement on the key issue of the filling period of the reservoir behind the dam remains slow.

The focus is likely to be hampered by more immediate internal matters such as a current wave of nationwide protests in Sudan against its leader, Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir. The demonstrations, which have gone on for more than 100 days, represent a threat to Bashir’s autocratic three-decade rule.

To a lesser degree, Ethiopia’s prime minister is having issues strengthening his political position.

Still, Ethiopian analyst Seide is optimistic that the dam dispute will be resolved and that the negotiations will have a “long-lasting, positive” effect on Egyptian-Ethiopian relations.

But before they get there, he added, there will be more “bumpy roads.”

Islam is a special correspondent.

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For Mohammed Ademo, July 1, 2018, will be a day forever etched in memory.

After 16 years in exile in the United States, the journalist and writer returned home to Ethiopia just months after a charismatic new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, ascended to power. Landing in Addis Ababa was, he says, a “jarring” and “dizzying” experience. In the intervening years, the Horn of Africa nation experienced rapid economic growth averaging over 10% annually, according to the World Bank. The number of cars chugging through the streets of the capital swelled, along with its population and the slew of China-built factories, roads, skyscrapers, and light rail transit.

Mohammed also hadn’t seen his mother and siblings for years, and of uniting with them said: “It was an exciting time. I couldn’t recognize their faces,” adding, “Everyone had changed.”

In the year since Abiy rose to power, the word “change” has come to define many things about Ethiopia. Under the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, the decades-long tightening vise of repression finally led to widespread anti-government demonstrations in 2015. Mohammed was part of a diaspora movement of writers and activists who used their contacts to bypass the internet and social media shutdown in Ethiopia and document the growing unrest. In February 2018, in a bid to calm intensifying tensions and pave way for dialogue, then premier Hailemariam Desalegn suddenly resigned.

STR/EPA-EFE/REX/SHUTTERSTOCK

On April 2, Abiy, just 41 then, became prime minister and Africa’s youngest leader. In moves best described as salvific, he helped turned the trajectory of Africa’s second most-populous state. He made peacewith long-time regional rivals like Eritrea and Egypt, released journalists, invited back opposition groups, acknowledged that prisoners suffered torture and abuse, and increased the place of women in power. He also promised to open up the economy for private investment, kickstarted a green initiative to transform the capital, and rolled out a visa-on-arrival push for African travelers.

Emboldened by these reforms, donor groups returned, with Ethiopia reportedly attracting a record $13 billion of inflows in the past year. Marathoner Feyisa Lilesa, who protested the previous government at the finish line at the Rio Olympics in 2016, also went back. During his East Africa tour last month, French president Emmanuel Macron commended Abiy’s transformative agenda, saying he “profoundly changed” Paris’s vision of Addis Ababa. Human Rights Watch staff who cover Ethiopia were also permitted to visit Ethiopia for the first time in eight years.

“It was refreshing how open people were to discuss politically sensitive issues, which is in sharp contrast to the past where there was much fear about speaking openly,” says HRW senior researcher Felix Horne.

STRINGER/EPA-EFE/REX/SHUTTERSTOCK

STR/EPA-EFE/REX/SHUTTERSTOCK

Unsettled transition

But as Ethiopia embarks on a promising period, it’s also facing an era laced with uncertainties. Abiy’s administration still faces the same challenges on how to address issues related to ethnic federalism, social justice, land reform, equitable economic development, plurality and freedom of expression besides creating a national consensus.

His seismic changes are also sure to face resistance from powerful corners, especially among the Tigray minority community, who have had outsized influence and representation in government since the overthrow of Ethiopia’s military dictatorship in 1991.

Awol Allo, an Ethiopia observer who teaches law at Keele University in the UK, says Abiy has “inherited a dystopian nightmare” aggravated by ideological and ethnic divisions. Inter-communal clashes have, for instance, displaced over 2.9 million people across the country. The government, in order to encourage internally displaced people (IDP) to return home, has reportedly hindered relief organizations from delivering life-saving assistance. Last August, following violence in the eastern Somali region, officials resorted to an old tactic of blocking internet access to quell unrest.

“Abiy has worryingly made references to a possible return to the old ways,” Horne warns, adding “the lack of a federal response to deal with the IDP crisis and the breakdown of local governance and security is very concerning.”

AP PHOTO/MULUGETA AYENE

As the past faces off with the present and future, another issue that bubbles to the surface is who should be responsible for past violations. While former government and military officials have been arrested on corruption and human rights abuses, many of them are yet to be charged. Putting aside political expediency, Awol says it’s critical Abiy’s government pursue justice for victims while enforcing ethnic harmony: “It should also be about reconciliation, truth, healing, repair, closure, and finality.”

Economic growth 

Another area of concern is the economy. While Ethiopia has one of the fastest growing economies in the world, its rise has been plagued by limited competitiveness, foreign exchange shortages, inadequate tax collection, an underdeveloped private sector, and high debt levels.

So far, the government has sought to restructure some of its loan arrangements, cut costs, and suspended some key planned mega projects to fight corruption and streamline completion efforts, and promised to ramp up privatization of sectors like aviation and telecoms. Yet the success of all these moves “will depend upon the creation of a far larger and more internationally integrated capital markets system that is free from its current isolated position,” said Roddy Barclay, director of intelligence and analysis at advisory firm Africa Practice.

AP PHOTO/MARKUS SCHREIBER

Abiy’s biggest challenge will come in 2020 when Ethiopia will hold crucial polls. The prime minister has vowed to open up the democratic space and give more room to opponents in a nation of over 100 million where no opposition lawmaker sits in parliament. The polls might showcase the challenges associated with the lack of a planned transitional strategy besides the diverse and growing opposition and activist voices all vying to sway the country’s future direction.

The journalist Mohammed Ademo says that whoever gets elected next year will have the task of institutionalizing the changes Abiy introduced and fulfill the hopes of a young population that wants the dividends of change to come fast. “For Ethiopia, democracy is not an option. It’s a necessity.”

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By Jeff Wise

Few airplane crashes have had repercussions on the scale of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302, which plunged into the ground six minutes after takeoff on March 10, 2019. On its own, the crash was a tragedy, an avoidable accident that took the lives of 157 men, women, and children. But because it was a nearly new Boeing 737 Max jet, and because another 737 Max had crashed under similar circumstances less than five months before, its destruction raised the shocking possibility that the latest model from the world’s most venerable jet manufacturer might be fundamentally unsafe.

In the aftermath, the 737 Max was grounded around the world, and as investigators labored to understand what had happened, observers were left to speculate on the basis of limited information. Then last week Ethiopia’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau released a 33-page preliminary report into the incident, including partial transcripts of the cockpit voice recorder and readouts of the flight data recorder. Together, they allow us to understand with much greater precision what happened during the doomed flight and why the plane’s design flaws were so dangerous.

8:37:34 a.m.: A 737 Max aircraft, Ethiopian registry ET-AVJ, is waiting near the threshold to runway 07R at Addis Ababa Bole International Airport. The weather is fair, sunny and 61 degrees, with a light wind out of the northeast. With seats for 160 passengers, the plane is nearly full. Those aboard include 148 adult passengers and two children from 35 countries, including eight Americans. The Nigerian writer Pius Adesanmi is on board, as is Ralph Nader’s grand-niece, Samy Stumo, and seven members of the United Nations World Food Program. At just four months old, the plane still has that fresh-out-of-the-box feel, with olive-green seats in the back and red ones up front.

The control tower gives the flight permission to take off. The plane — all white, with the word “Ethiopian” emblazoned across the front of the fuselage in four-foot-high letters and the red, yellow, green of Ethiopia’s national colors splashed on its tail in the shape of feathers — rolls forward and makes a 90 degree turn to line up with the runway centerline. It’s a beautiful day to go flying.

8:38:00 a.m.: Its CFM International Leap-1B jet engines throttling up to full takeoff power, the 737 Max eases forward. Its 160,000-pound mass steadily gains speed under the massive engines’ thrust. At an elevation of 7,656 feet, the airport is more than 2,000 feet higher than Denver International, and it takes longer for the plane to get airborne. As the plane reaches rotation speed, passengers in the left-hand side window seats can see the Entoto Mountains rising above the airport terminal.

The captain pulls back on the control yoke and the plane’s nose lifts into the air. Though just 29, he has amassed more than 8,000 hours flight experience in nine years with the airline, including more than 1,000 in the 737.

Seconds later, the main gear leaves the ground and the sun-drenched landscape falls away. The plane is airborne, bound for Nairobi, Kenya.

8:38:44 a.m.: Just as the plane’s main gear lifts from the runway pavement something goes wrong with a sensor on the left-hand side of the nose. Perhaps a bird hits it. The sensor, called an angle-of-attack or AOA vane, measures the relative angle between the fuselage and the flow of air. If this angle gets too big, it means that the nose is too high and the plane is on the verge of a dangerous aerodynamic stall which could cause the wing to lose lift dramatically. As a safety feature, Boeing’s designers have equipped the plane with a system called MCAS that will automatically push the nose down when the angle of attack is too large. The broken sensor indicates, incorrectly, that the plane is now in such a state. The MCAS doesn’t kick in immediately, however, because it’s not designed to work when the plane is in takeoff configuration.

8:39:45 a.m.: One minute into the flight, the captain asks the first officer to raise the flaps — slatlike extensions that extend below the trailing edge of the wing to provide extra lift at low speeds — and he does so. As the flaps slide back under the wing, the plane is now in the state that MCAS was designed for.

8:39:55 a.m.: In a clear sign that something is amiss, the autopilot turns itself off. In the cabin the passengers are getting shaken as the plane rolls back and forth, bumping and sinking. The captain asks the first officer to call the control tower and say that they are having control problems.

8:40:00 a.m.: The MCAS activates. An electric motor drives a wheel by the captain’s knee, and with each rotation it makes a “beep.” The wheel is mechanically linked to the broad horizontal surface in the tail, the stabilizer, that moves the nose up and down. The MCAS’s command pitches the plane forward into a dive — an alarming sensation for the pilots, given that the plane is still just a few hundred feet above the ground. The passengers momentarily feel light in their seats, as though in a car cresting the top of a hill. The pilots respond immediately by pulling back on their control yokes. These move a smaller control surface on the back of the stabilizer called the elevator so that it drives the nose back up again. They also use a switch on their yokes to trim the stabilizer back up. By doing this they manage to stop the nose from dropping further, but the plane is still losing altitude. Then the MCAS kicks in again, moving the stabilizer so that it drops the nose even further. Now things are looking really dangerous.

In the back of the plane, it’s a bumpy ride. Something is clearly wrong, but it’s impossible for the passengers to guess what that might be.

8:40:35 a.m.: “Stab trim cut-out!” the first officer says — that is, the electrical trim system for the stabilizer must be disconnected. “Stab trim cut out!” The captain agrees. They recognize that they are experiencing a runway MCAS, a condition that destroyed Lion Air Flight 610 less than five months before. They flip a pair of switches that disables the trim system, and along with it the MCAS.

8:41:46 a.m.: The pilots have made a mistake that is easy to overlook amid the confusion, but which will have severe consequences. When they shut off the electric trim system to disable MCAS, they also shut off their ability to use the electric switch on the top of their yokes to trim the stabilizer back into a neutral position. The only way they can move it now is by cranking the wheel by hand. But because the stabilizer is positioned opposite to the elevator, there are strong aerodynamic forces pushing on it, effectively pinning it in place. The problem is made worse by another inadvertent mistake the pilots have made: They’ve left the engines at full takeoff power, which has caused the plane to accelerate to high speed. This adds to the pressure on the stabilizer. Try as they might to crank the stabilizer back into position by hand, the pilots can’t get it to budge.

8:42:10 a.m.: The captain asks the co-pilot to called air traffic control and ask them for permission to return to the airport. The co-pilot does this and permission is granted. Following ATC’s instructions, they turn the plane to the east. The plane makes a wobbly roll to the right, the wings quivering as it dips and rises in relation to the horizon. Soon the right wing is pointed sharply down as the plane’s turn steepens.

8:43:04 a.m.: For minutes now, the captain has been using brute physical force to pull the control yoke back in order to keep the plane’s nose from sinking. Now he asks the first officer to help him. It’s exhausting work, and they can’t keep it up forever. Because the engines remain at full power, the plane is flying right at the top end of its design speed. Any faster, and it risks getting torn apart.

It’s terrifying for a pilot to struggle to control his airplane, and the surge of intense fear makes it impossible to think creatively, an effect psychologists call “cognitive tunneling.” Failing to grasp that he should reduce engine power, and unable to think of any good way to get the stabilizer back into trim, the captain apparently settles on a desperate gambit: He will turn the electrical trim system back on, and hope that the system will allow him to put the stabilizer back in neutral trim.

8:43:11 a.m.: The captain briefly toggles the manual switch to trim the nose up, then toggles it again. He is tentative, as if testing to see how big an effect the move will have given the plane’s extremely high speed.

8:43:20 a.m.: The demon awakened by the restoration of electric trim reappears. MCAS kicks back in, pushing nose steeply down. There’s no reason for the system to deploy at this speed — it was added to the 737 Max to prevent unintended stalling at low speed, hardly a danger with the plane at the high end of its speed envelope — but its designers apparently failed to consider that this kind of situation might arise.

The captain and first officer pull back on their yokes with all their strength, but the nose plunges lower and lower, until they’re barreling toward the ground like a roller-coaster. The men are left hanging in their straps as the indicated airspeed blasts through its design envelope.

Any passengers not wearing their seat belts would be wrenched from their seats, dropped back down, then flung onto the ceiling as the plane’s dive steepens. The view out the window would have been of a sickeningly raked horizon, and the ground drawing nearer with palpable velocity.

8:43:45 a.m.: Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 impacts a farm field at nearly 700 miles per hour, killing everyone aboard instantly and creating a crater 90 feet wide and 120 feet long. Wreckage is driven into the soil up to 30 feet deep.

Photo: Jemal Countess/Getty Images

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by Solomon Hailemariam

What is happening in Ethiopia is mesmerizing for all Ethiopians and now for Eritreans as well. History is in the making and unfolding. So many of us are absorbed by what is going on in Ethiopia. Some of my friends tell me that they have been having sleepless night since the advent of the new prime minister in Ethiopia. I know many Ethiopians have been following what is going on in Ethiopia for over 30 years. But the intensity and dramatic events happening in Ethiopia right now are monumental, and may be comparable to the colossal 1974 popular revolution which toppled the Emperor Haileselassie and ended the so called Solomonic Dynasty.

One of my other friends said “we need break from the breaking news”. It is indeed a phenomenal time for many Ethiopians both inside Ethiopia and in the diaspora.

Such a time is an inspiration for poets, writers and artist and one can see many artistic productions related to the current events. Some of the famous media networks in the world are even reporting about Ethiopia and in a positive manner.

Ethiopians sustained unimaginable suffering for many decades as a result of mal administration, poor policy, poverty, lack of tolerance and respect for one another, arrogance, disease and lack of education. Ethiopia is not unique in facing such adversity. Most countries in the world have suffered similar hardship at some point in their history. Nonetheless, what makes Ethiopia unique is our stubbornness, our refusal to learn from our own past history or from the world history.

In March 2016, in one of my articles under the title of “The Oromo Revolt: Time for a paradigm shift for all of us “http://www.ethiomedia.com/1011issues/5175.html I tried to indicate some of our own recent historical events we should remember at this historical juncture:

“The Emperor was advised by his closer associates and advisors to introduce a constitutional monarchy again and again. He has refused to do so because he thought that, without him; no one could lead the country properly. He thought without him the country would crumble and all his efforts would be in vain. There was an attempted coup in 1960 and after 14 years, he had to go violently. Almost all his legacies and his people have disappeared.

Obviously, dictators never learn from the past, even their immediate predecessor, the military dictators were also advised to negotiate with the rebels and introduce dramatic change to the country. They introduced a ‘mixed economy’ at the 11th hour but the change was too little and too late. There was another attempted coup in 1989 and the junta was not worried by it as it was able to control it. The junta thought so long as the military continued with its brutal rule; it could stay in power indefinitely. We all know what happened to the regime and even to the country after its famous collapse.

Both regimes could have reversed history to some extent and could have helped the country move so many steps forward. That didn’t happen. Now we are faced with an almost similar situation” …

The evidence of the last 12 months indicates that Ethiopia is moving quickly to re-assert principles of democracy and effective statehood. These include protecting the rule of law, making peace with a neighbouring state and establishing a parliamentary democracy.

England’s Magna Carta, signed in 1215 by King John ensured that even the King had to follow the law of the land and the rights of individuals could be guaranteed even when the king objected. In Ethiopia we don’t have king and in fact, I don’t want to have one in our country, no, never! But the new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, promised in his series of speeches the all-important elements necessary to institutionalize democracy in Ethiopia. For instance, he promised that the Prime Minister’s term in office will be limited to two terms. He promised an independent judiciary, free, fair and independent elections, the state apparatus to be independent of the political parties and he called opposition parties “brothers and competing parties”. In a country where opposition parties have been considered “enemy” this was revolutionary.

It is not just a series of paper promises; he has already started delivering on them. Abiy Ahmed, in office for only in 12 months, has already introduced a number of reforms which rocked the status quo. He invited all competing parties including those who had been labelled “terrorist” by the former government. He released thousands of political prisoners including journalists and religious leaders. He openly admitted that the government used “terrorism to remain in power”.

In Abiy government women will now run key dockets including defence, trade, transport, and the newly-established ministry of peace. Abiy appointed first female president, supreme court president, and election board chairwoman. The record 50% female representation is a win for the new premier.

History has shown us that even longstanding wars between neighbouring countries can be brought to an end by treaties.

Abiy made history when he struck a peace deal with Eritrea after 20 years where almost 100,000 people died in both sides in the brutal war between the two closely-related countries. The new prime minister of Ethiopia seems to understand the value of peace and reconciliation. He has been extending an olive branch to all oppositions at home and abroad. Even those who thought they could succeed using a military option have got a chance now to promote their cause peacefully, OLF, ONLF and Ginbot 7 are the cases in point.

What is happening in the last 4, 5 months in Ethiopia?

After almost 12 months in office, I feel that the new Prime Minister, Dr.Abiy Ahmed and his team are experiencing a very grueling time in office.

It is depressing to see the original bright change in governance confronted by so many stratagems. I have a feeling many share these nuisances. There is a deluge coming in Ethiopia from all directions. Some are using this deluge for evil purposes, others for narrow interest, and still others using it for sectarian interest. Unfortunately, the only viable way to tame the deluge is creating irrigations everywhere from the rivers and tributaries. The deluge here is mostly the youth in Ethiopia, who are unemployed, the under employed, and the Internally Displaced People (IDP). The irrigations are obviously job and wealth creation, which requires time and stability. Ethiopia has neither time nor stability and that is the dilemma of the change agents currently face in Ethiopia.

The Sidama are trying to strangle the Federal government by requesting state hood. The Oromo spearheaded by Jawar Mohammed, who is very controversial in terms of the role he is playing, are trying to correct blemished history. The OLF is trying to achieve its age-old agenda, to separate Oromia from the rest of Ethiopia. The TPLF is trying to destabilize the country by fanning all instability. The TPLF is undertaking to return to its notoriety and power or subvert the country. The Amhara National Movement (ANM) is trying to reclaim the outmoded pre-eminence in the Amhara region. The newly established Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) is worried that OLF and OFC might snatch its constituency, hence making knee-jerk decisions. The Amhara Democratic Party (ADP) in one way surprised and cautious by ODP confusing decisions, in another way, preparing itself for a potential war with TPLF. Ginbot 7 whose major constituency are in cities, is also confused about what to do as it supports wholeheartedly the new Prime Minister and the new change. The IDP is suffering here and there and it is impossible to ignore them and it is a challenge for the new government as well. There are many opportunists around who are willing to do anything bad so long as they benefit.

Former Southern Ethiopian Democratic Movement (SEDM) officials who have been pushed from the apex of power and who are still in power but in pit positions are using all their connections, local knowledge and resources to return to power indirectly but in a decisive manner as regional presidents and regional dignitaries. Sidama and others might have a genuine cause to form a new state in the SEDM but the timing is not right at all. There is a big speculation that those who are pushing the people of Sidama to revolt against the Federal government, using the question of state hood as an excuse are, nurtured, and supported by TPLF and its cronies.

The controversial Jawar Mohammed, who is the Owner/Director? Of Oromia Media Network and who is claimed to lead the Oromo youth (KERRO), has been behind the latest Oromia wide demonstrations against the distribution of condominiums for Addis Ababa low-income residents.

Eskinder Nega who has previously been tried for treason following post-election protests in 2005 was sentenced to 18 years in prison in 2012 on trumped up terrorism charges. Eskinder has been released when Abiy Ahmed released thousands of political prisoners and journalist and dismissed charges against diaspora-based media outlets. Eskinder is now doing his journalistic work in Ethiopia but what is alarming is that he is slowly but surely engaging in activism which doesn’t seem to go in the right direction. He staged public gathering and make political statements regarding Addis Ababa.

The 51,229 condominium units which were built in the last 4 or 5 years in the outskirt of Addis Ababa was a long-time project by EPRDF government to alleviate the housing problem in the city. The low-income residents have been saving for over 5 years hoping to get government subsidized housing. The condominiums have already been constructed for these desperate low-income residents, who have been suffering as a tenant in the city. The Addis Ababa city Deputy Mayor, who is also from ODP and a stanch supporter of the new prime minister, had to distribute the condominium as, in one hand people are demanding to get the new condominium and in the other hand the condominiums are still unoccupied after spending millions of dollars. After waiting until the Mayor start distributing the condominium, the next day Jawar organized Oromia wide demonstrations.

Worried by the implications of the demonstration and recalling what had happened after the three years Kerro demonstrations, the ODP denounced the distribution and decided to stop the process of handing over the condominiums. What is more, the ODP promised to do more to make the Oromo radicals happier by mentioning it will work hard to realize the Oromia special interest in Addis Ababa.

This shows clearly that the ODP didn’t anticipate such strong opposition and was shocked to learn that OLF and other Oromo parties such as OFC could easily snatch away its constituency. So the ODP wanted to be more radical than the radicals themselves.

If Jawar and Eskinder Nega were wiser, mature and farsighted, they wouldn’t orchestrate the demonstration in Oromia and Addis Ababa even if they think what was happening was wrong. I do completely agree that the Oromo farmers who lost their land for the condominiums must be compensated dearly. Make no mistake, they must be protected but to unleash such antagonisms against the Abiy government is unprecedented and not fair at all.

I do understand the economic need of the Oromo people living around Addis Ababa City. One of the arguments is that garbage has been dumped in the surrounding Oromo satellite cities. Another issue voiced by Oromo elites has been the displacement of Oromo farmers from the surrounding cities. These and many other issues can be discussed and solved by matured politicians rather than creating unnecessary tension between people who have been living in Addis Ababa for over 120 years. The major reason why the Ethiopian people are yearning for democracy is to solve such huge age- old problems in Addis Ababa peacefully and to address other political issues like the Raya and Wolkait problems.

Jawar and Eskinder made a huge mistake when they refused to see the timing and condition in Ethiopia. ODP also shouldn’t take the knee-jerk decision without sufficient deliberations. The combination of all these are recipe for disaster in Ethiopia.

We, Africans in general, Ethiopians in particular are not cursed to fight each other, to hate each other eternally. If Europeans and many other peoples have been able to bring to a close the age of hate, conflict and brutality long ago, why not us? Why do we hate each other? Is it because of poverty? If we forgive each other and if we choose peace, as Prime Minister Abiy put it “we have enough for all of us”. There are many examples in history – Why don’t we learn from them?

I am not here writing and lamenting about the fate of our country. I am here to write action and suggest what I think is right to avert the country from collapsing. Obviously writing/saying is easier than done. But in the meantime, something is better than nothing. I hope, at least one of the leaders of the new change, in the current Ethiopia, will read this article and may find even a single point useful for their strenuous historic responsibility.

Humble suggestions for the Abiy government to consider in such trying times?

1. ODP, ADP, TPLF and SEDM must make a serious dialogue and must reach in consensus in the direction of the new change.
2. Engage TPLF members who have accepted the change sincerely and be vigilant of those who are working day and night to topple the Abiy government.
3. For each problem a separate committee should be set.
4. Well-educated people from the Diaspora who support the Abiy government must be included in each committee.
5. Grassroots involvement should be mandatory for the committee and must find bottom up solution.
6. The committee should use well-known scientific methods to approach the problem and to come up with the solution.
7. The solutions should be presented to the prime minister office in a specific timetable for decision and action.
8. Make sure that the committee is free from “cronies” and TPLF spies.
9. People with competing interest or vested interest should not be member of the committee.
10. Stay away from knee-jerk decisions and unnecessary public relations exercises.
11. Make sure the economy and state apparatus operate regularly and efficiently.
12. Delay the election.
13. Government should clearly set/define what is activism and what is journalism.
14. Create jobs as much as possible.
15. Mobilize and use your supporters in a regular manner and systematically.
16. Transform your neighboring friendship in to a new level, such as creating security alliance.
17. Make sure law and order upholds outstandingly all the time and use deterrence policy.
18. Take decisive action against those who are trying to sabotage the government from inside.
19. The Prime Minster should broach new faces and competent individuals who are leading the new change.
20. Monitor the mainstream and social media and analyze it in a realistic manner.
21. Do not respond for face book and social media issues.
22. Communicate clearly

The Writer can be reached at:solgosole@gmail.com

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Jason Neely , Reuters

• Boeing has seen billions wiped off its market value since the crash
• A final report by Ethiopian authorities aided by air-safety experts from the United States and Europe is due to be published within a year

ADDIS ABABA: Ethiopian Airlines’ doomed 737 MAX jet hit excessive speed and was forced downwards by a wrongly-triggered automation system as pilots wrestled to regain control, a preliminary report into the crash that has shaken the aviation world showed on Thursday.

Three times the captain, Yared Getachew, cried “pull up”, before the Boeing Co plane plunged into a field six minutes after takeoff from Addis Ababa, killing all 157 passengers and crew, said the report by Ethiopian investigators.

The March 10 disaster, and parallels with another 737 MAX crash in Indonesia last October in which 189 people died, has led to the worldwide grounding of Boeing’s flagship model.

It has also brought uncomfortable scrutiny over new software, pilot training and regulatory rigour.

The report leaves unanswered questions, aviation experts said, over whether crew followed guidance not to restore power to a troublesome anti-stall system following sensor damage, possibly caused by a bird strike. The plane was also left at unusually high thrust throughout the flight, data suggested.

While the Ethiopian Civil Aviation Authority’s Accident Prevention and Investigation Bureau had a remit to investigate rather than blame, it implicitly pointed the finger at Boeing by defending the pilots, recommending the U.S. company fix its control systems, and saying regulators must be certain before allowing the MAX back in the air.

“The crew performed all the procedures repeatedly provided by the manufacturer but was not able to control the aircraft,” Transport Minister Dagmawit Moges told a news conference.

“Since repetitive uncommanded aircraft nose down conditions are noticed … it is recommended that the aircraft control system shall be reviewed by the manufacturer.”

Boeing, the world’s biggest planemaker and one of the United States’ most important exporters with a $500 billion order book for the MAX, says a new software fix for its MCAS anti-stall system will enable pilots to always override if necessary.

Responding to the preliminary report, Boeing Chief Executive Officer Dennis Muilenburg said: “As pilots have told us, erroneous activation of the MCAS function can add to what is already a high workload environment.”

“It’s our responsibility to eliminate this risk. We own it and we know how to do it,” Muilenburg said in a statement.

FRAGMENTS IN A CRATER

According to the preliminary report, an alarm indicating excess speed was heard on the cockpit voice reporter as the jet reached 500 knots (575 miles per hour) – well above operational limits.

The plane had faulty “angle of attack” sensor readings, its nose was pushed down automatically, and the crew lost control despite following recommended instructions, it said.

“Most of the wreckage was found buried in the ground,” the report said, indicating the strength of the impact on an arid field in an agricultural zone. No bodies were recovered, only charred fragments among the debris in a crater.

A final report by Ethiopian authorities aided by air-safety experts from the United States and Europe is due to be published within a year.

Boeing has seen billions wiped off its market value since the crash, but its shares rose 2.9% on Thursday. Morgan Stanley said the report of flight control problems, which Boeing was already trying to fix, meant a “worst case scenario” of a new cause was probably off the table.

The software update “along with the associated training and additional educational materials that pilots want in the wake of these accidents, will eliminate the possibility of unintended MCAS activation and prevent an MCAS-related accident from ever happening again,” Muilenburg’s statement said.

Families of the victims, regulators and travellers around the world have been waiting to find out to what extent Boeing technology or the pilots’ actions played a role.

The preliminary report into the crash of a Lion Air 737 MAX in Indonesia suggested pilots also lost control after grappling with the MCAS software, a new automated anti-stall feature that repeatedly lowered the nose based on faulty sensor data.

“Whatever the issues were, they better be 110 percent sure about their resolution, otherwise the 157 lives lost would have been for nothing if something like this happens again,” said one woman, who lost her father in the Ethiopian crash, asking not to be identified. “This is a lesson to not take shortcuts in order to try and save bucks.”

‘PROFITS OVER SAFETY’?

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration regulator, under fire for its certification of the MAX, cautioned the inquiry was not over. “As we learn more about the accident and findings become available, we will take appropriate action,” it said.

Boeing may press to know more about how crew members responded to problems triggered by the faulty data. The New York Times quoted the Ethiopian government’s Dagmawit as saying pilots turned MCAS off and on, which is not the step recommended in procedures telling crew to leave it off once disabled.

With bereaved families angry and confused, relatives of an American woman killed in the Ethiopian crash, Samya Stumo, filed the first lawsuit on behalf of a U.S. victim in Chicago. The complaint named Boeing and Rosemount Aerospace Inc, the manufacturer of the angle of attack sensor, as defendants.

Stumo is the niece of consumer activist Ralph Nader, who called for a boycott of the 737 MAX on Thursday.

Pilots around the world were watching closely.

“If the preliminary report from the Ethiopian authorities is accurate, the pilots quickly identified the malfunction and applied the manufacturer’s checklist,” said Captain Jason Goldberg, spokesman for Allied Pilots Association, which represents American Airlines pilots.

“Following this checklist did not appear to allow the pilots to regain control of the aircraft.”

But a former U.S. National Transportation Safety Board investigator questioned the aircraft’s speed, which according to data in the report was left on a higher than usual setting. Aviation experts say the sensor fault should have required the crew to take manual control of the power since it would disrupt accurate speed readings in the cockpit.

“The report does not address information about unreliable airspeed procedures which should be considered,” said Greg Feith, a former NTSB air safety investigator.

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KHARTOUM – Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has stepped down and consultations are under way to form a transitional council to run the country, government sources and a provincial minister said on Thursday.

The minister of production and economic resources in North Darfur, Adel Mahjoub Hussein, told the Dubai-based al-Hadath TV that “there are consultations to form a military council to take over power after President Bashir stepped down”.

Sudanese sources confirmed the report and told Reuters Bashir was at the presidential residence under “heavy guard”.

The military will make an announcement soon, state television said as troops were deployed in Khartoum.

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Wikileaks co-founder Julian Assange has been arrested at the Ecuadorian embassy in London.

Assange took refuge in the embassy in 2012 to avoid extradition to Sweden over a sexual assault case that has since been dropped.

At Westminster Magistrates’ Court on Thursday he was found guilty of failing to surrender to the court.

He now faces US federal conspiracy charges related to one of the largest ever leaks of government secrets.

The UK will decide whether to extradite Assange, in response to allegations by the Department for Justice that he conspired with former US intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning to download classified databases.

He faces up to five years in US prison if convicted on the charges of conspiracy to commit computer intrusion.

Assange’s lawyer Jennifer Robinson said they would be fighting the extradition request. She said it set a “dangerous precedent” where any journalist could face US charges for “publishing truthful information about the United States”.

She said she had visited Assange in the police cells where he thanked supporters and said: “I told you so.”

Assange had predicted that he would face extradition to the US if he left the embassy.

What happened in court?

Image copyrightJULIA QUENZLER, BBC

After his arrest, the 47-year-old Australian national was initially taken to a central London police station before appearing in court.

Dressed in a black suit and black polo shirt, he waved to the public gallery and gave a thumbs up. He pleaded not guilty to the 2012 charge of failing to surrender to the court.

Finding him guilty of that charge, District Judge Michael Snow said Assange’s behaviour was “the behaviour of a narcissist who cannot get beyond his own selfish interest”.

He sent him to Southwark Crown Court for sentencing, where he faces up to 12 months in prison.

The court also heard that during his arrest at the embassy he had to be restrained and shouted: “This is unlawful, I am not leaving.”

Image copyrightREUTERS

Why does the US government want to extradite Assange?

Assange set up Wikileaks in 2006 with the aim of obtaining and publishing confidential documents and images.

The organisation hit the headlines four years later when it released footage of US soldiers killing civilians from a helicopter in Iraq.

Former US intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning was arrested in 2010 for disclosing more than 700,000 confidential documents, videos and diplomatic cables to the anti-secrecy website.

She said she only did so to spark debates about foreign policy, but US officials said the leak put lives at risk.

She was found guilty by a court martial in 2013 of charges including espionage. However, her jail sentence was later commuted.

Manning was recently jailed for refusing to testify before an investigation into Wikileaks’ role in revealing the secret files.

What are the US charges against him?

The indictment against Assange, issued last year in the state of Virginia, alleges that he conspired in 2010 with Manning to access classified information on Department of Defense computers. He faces up to five years in jail.

Manning downloaded four databases from US departments and agencies between January and May 2010, the indictment says. This information, much of which was classified, was provided to Wikileaks.

The US Justice Department described it as “one of the largest compromises of classified information in the history of the United States”.

Cracking a password stored on the computers, the indictment alleges, would have allowed Manning to log on to them in such a way as to make it harder for investigators to determine the source of the disclosures. It is unclear whether the password was actually broken.

Correspondents say the narrowness of the charge seems intended to avoid falling foul of the US Constitution’s First Amendment guarantee of freedom of the press.

Why did the Ecuadorian embassy stop protecting him?

The Wikileaks co-founder had been in the Ecuadorian embassy in London since 2012, after seeking asylum there to avoid extradition to Sweden on a rape allegation.

The investigation into the alleged rape, which he denied, was later dropped because he had evaded the arrest warrant. The Swedish Prosecution Authority has said it is now considering whether to resume the inquiry before the statute of limitations runs out in August 2020.

Scotland Yard said it was invited into the embassy on Thursday by the ambassador, following the Ecuadorian government’s withdrawal of asylum.

Ecuadorian president Lenin Moreno said the country had “reached its limit on the behaviour of Mr Assange”.

Mr Moreno said: “The most recent incident occurred in January 2019, when Wikileaks leaked Vatican documents.

“This and other publications have confirmed the world’s suspicion that Mr Assange is still linked to WikiLeaks and therefore involved in interfering in internal affairs of other states.”

His accusations against Assange also included blocking security cameras at the embassy, accessing security files and confronting guards.

Image copyrightREUTERS

Mr Moreno said the British government had confirmed in writing that Assange “would not be extradited to a country where he could face torture or the death penalty”.

The arrest comes a day after Wikileaks said it had uncovered an extensive spying operation against its co-founder at the Ecuadorian embassy.

There has been a long-running dispute between the Ecuadorian authorities and Assange about what he was and was not allowed to do in the embassy.

• Ecuador court throws out Assange lawsuit

BBC diplomatic correspondent James Landale said that over the years they had removed his access to the internet and accused him of engaging in political activities – which is not allowed when claiming asylum.

He said: “Precisely what has happened in the embassy is not clear – there has been claim and counter claim.”

How have people reacted?

Prime Minister Theresa May told the House of Commons: “This goes to show that in the UK, no one is above the law.”

Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said the arrest was the result of “years of careful diplomacy” and that it was “not acceptable” for someone to “escape facing justice”.

But Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said that Assange had revealed “evidence of atrocities in Iraq and Afghanistan” and his extradition “should be opposed by the British government”.

Press freedom organisation Reporters Without Borders said that the UK should resist extradition, because it would “set a dangerous precedent for journalists, whistleblowers, and other journalistic sources that the US may wish to pursue in the future”.

Australia’s Foreign Minister Marise Payne said he would continue to receive “the usual consular support” and that consular officers will try to visit him.

And actress Pamela Anderson, who has visited the embassy to support Assange, said the arrest was a “vile injustice”.

Timeline: Julian Assange saga

• August 2010 – The Swedish Prosecutor’s Office first issues an arrest warrant for Assange. It says there are two separate allegations – one of rape and one of molestation. Assange says the claims are “without basis”
• December 2010 – Assange is arrested in London and bailed at the second attempt
• May 2012 – The UK’s Supreme Court rules he should be extradited to Sweden to face questioning over the allegations
• June 2012 – Assange enters the Ecuadorean embassy in London
• August 2012 – Ecuador grants asylum to Assange, saying there are fears his human rights might be violated if he is extradited
• August 2015 – Swedish prosecutors drop their investigation into two allegations – one of sexual molestation and one of unlawful coercion because they have run out of time to question him. But he still faces the more serious accusation of rape.
• October 2015 – Metropolitan Police announces that officers will no longer be stationed outside the Ecuadorean embassy
• February 2016 – A UN panel rules that Assange has been “arbitrarily detained” by UK and Swedish authorities since 2010
• May 2017 – Sweden’s director of public prosecutions announces that the rape investigation into Assange is being dropped
• July 2018 – The UK and Ecuador confirm they are holding ongoing talks over the fate of Assange
• October 2018 – Assange is given a set of house rules at the Ecuadorean embassy in London. He then launches legal action against the government of Ecuador
• December 2018 – Assange’s lawyer rejects an agreement announced by Ecuador’s president to see him leave the Ecuadorean embassy
• February 2019 – Australia grants Assange a new passport amid fears Ecuador may bring his asylum to an end
• April 2019 – The Metropolitan Police arrests him for “failing to surrender to the court” over a warrant issued in 2012. He is found guilty and faces up to 12 months in prison, as well as extradition over US charges of conspiracy to commit computer intrusion.

The post Julian Assange: Wikileaks co-founder arrested in London appeared first on Satenaw Ethioopian News & Breaking News: Your right to know!.

BY DAVID SHEPARDSON AND Tracy Rucinski

The post FAA Meets With U.S. Airlines, Pilot Unions on Boeing 737 MAX appeared first on Satenaw Ethioopian News & Breaking News: Your right to know!.

After 27 years of TPLF dominated regime’s brutal dictatorship, the Ethiopian people briefly seen glimpse of hope that its peaceful long struggle reaching to its pinnacle and to fruit. Reform oriented middle rank new leaders who sensed the public outcry for freedom in the last 3 years emerged with in the EPRDF and assumed the leadership position in April 2018 following with in the party bitter power struggle. The strategic alliance of former OPDO (ODP) and ANDM ( ADP) helped to oust TPLF from leadership position to the periphery.

The so called “Team Lemma” and new prime minster Dr. Abiy Ahmed made a bold, promising and Ethiopian speech and their early action raised new hope among Ethiopian people that the country is to undergo peaceful transition to democratic country. Some of the measure by the new leadership in the early days of transition galvanised national public support to the new leaders. Most people thought their longstanding praying have been answered. The youth considered it as revolution toppling the brutal TPLF dominated regime. Some considered it as rather a reform instead of revolution that the EPRDF metamorphosing from TPLF to Oromo elite dominated new regime.

The public euphoria lasted only few months. The new leadership tasked itself only rectifying the sin of TPLF instead of looking for the future and new Ethiopia. They covered the open gangrenous wound of TPLF’s regime with new dressing with some fragrance perfumes. This doesn’t root out the root/ poison of TPLF’s regime that bitterly ruled the country through divide and rule policy for nearly three decades.

The wound covered by the new dressing is currently highly infected by the virus and bacteria called Ethnic politics, its proponents and activists. It is discharging foul smelling pus. More than 4 millions of people are displaced, thousands died and majority of Ethiopian are now under fear that country will go to civil war. The ethnic clash we see all over our country is due to partly failure of the new leadership to identify the root cause of our countries suffering of 27 years under TPLF dominated regime and address accordingly by informing, unifying and mobilizing the public against root cause.

It is becoming apparent that the poison cancer left by TPLF regime will not be detoxified for long unless a radical treatment/therapy is done. The current leaders are unlikely to sort it as they are rather “reform” oriented and part and parcel of ethnic based political parties that have been ruling the country and wanting to rule further. Their Ethiopian national feeling and activity is often thwarted by the ethnic enclave party enslavement they come from and it is very unlikely this would change in the near future.

The so called transition political period which is led by themselves without including the oppositions or other stake holder’s is dwarfed by their failure to be true transition leaders. Although they have facilitated superficial freedom and engagement for the political elites, their inaction or covert action embolden aggressive ethnic politics to dominate the agenda and cause death and displacement throughout the country. They failed the country and the people by allowing ethnic political armed group to enter Ethiopia without disarmament. They facilitated their medias to preach hate, displacement, monger war and have caused distress to the majority of Ethiopian people . These groups causing chaos, suffering, displacement of millions all over the country in a scale not seen even in 27 brutal dictatorship of TPLF led regime.

The new leaders have failed as they have no clear bold vision of the future except patching some of the holes and dirt’s of TPLF regime. They fail to do top priority task of reconciliation, forgiveness, people to people discussion and among political parties for the past ill of 45 years. The majority of the people currently alive are affected by 27 years of TPLF rule and 17 years of Dergue rule where millions of life lost. Many bear grudges and hate which needs healing through forgiveness, reconciliation, fair justice and close the past chapter to have a new Ethiopia where the past deed will never repeat. If Ethiopians have done that in the early months following this political reform, they would have been able to know the root causes of the past, current ill and ease the transition without challenging setbacks.
This gave opportunities for old actors to revive, re organise and new actors to use the past as means to promote the future to disrupt peaceful political transition that the Ethiopian people deserve.

The risk at present Ethiopians face is not only an issue of democratisation of the political system, but the country as whole is at risk of disintegration. Prominent scholars and Political experts are stating Ethiopia is at brisk of integration and the country is becoming failed state. The current leadership unless it takes radical measure, they are to fail Ethiopians and the country in manner that no Ethiopian leaders failed in history.

The root cause of 27 years brutal dictatorship and current mass displacement and death is Ethnic politics. Ethnic politics is embolden in the country by the Constitution of TPLF. The Constitution was coined for sole purpose to legitimise the TPLF rule through divide and rule. The ethnic pseudo-federalism with TPLF made up fake boundary deluded many ethnic propagandist and their followers to discriminate the people as “ours and theirs”. This poison fuelled by historical exaggerated and false accounts and deluded sense of “this is our time” is edging the country to the cliff.

Ethiopian of all ethnicities, abilities, religious group, age group, gender, political opinion, profession, sexuality and specially the young generation should be aware of the current risk and save the country before it is too late. Once our country break up and engage in civil war, it will be catastrophic disaster for us and our children. Remember Former Yugoslavia, Somalia, Rwanda, Yemen and the people of Rohingya in Myanmar (Burma)

Unfortunately, Ethiopian based political groups and opinions that promote citizen based politics have been dissipated and dismantled by TPLF for 27 years and also made more lame by the current rulers and ethic agenda. They have no teeth to bite, nor tongue to speak. Currently it is Ethnic based political groups either in ruling or opposition which is dominating the country despite the public genuine desire for democratic country where people live as brother and sister with equal opportunities, justice and fair treatments. Ethnic politics by its nature is anti democratic, it is based on division and animosity of one from other. Further promotion of such is to call for more mayhems. Culture, language and tradition of different ethnic members of Ethiopia can be used to build the country for better instead to divide by not using it in political organisation.

At present the only national institution which is not legally promoted under ethnic tones and underpinning is the Ethiopia’s National Defence Force. Although the upper echelons with in army were from TPLF era with ethnic dimension, majority of the army specially the officers under the rank of Colonel are from all part of Ethiopia who are trained and to serve the nation. The Ethiopia Defence Force has the responsibility to save the country from disintegration by either internal or external forces. At present, Ethiopia is at risk of integration from volcanic ethnic politics which is causing mayhems. The current leadership is weak, failed safe political transition and facilitated ethnic politics to reign with in the country in manic mood.

The current prime minster Dr Abiy Ahmed preached unity, democracy and genuine election, but the reality on the background is different. He is either denied to put to practice what he promised because of hand twisting by the old TPLF dominated EPRDF political structure holding him back or /and fear of his ethnic party (ODP) which is infiltrated by OLF and other secessionist to replace him by Oromo ethnicist leader or /and fear of Oromo elite ethnic activists who dominated the agenda and controlled the social media and the youth specially the so called “Querro” or he has covert mission. At present it is not clear. Most people trusted him as genuine person and expect him to deliver such. There are two alternatives; either to enable him with full power to secure genuine political transition comprising other stake holders or the National Defence Force has to take the responsibility to save the country for short period to root out the root cause of the last 28 years poison and hand over to civilian government through genuine election.

We have seen in most countries the national army plays significant role in saving the country from collapse or disintegration although there are military coups for dictatorial military regimes as well. We can learn from the experience of countries from all over the world.

The Ethiopian Defence Force has national responsibility either to support Dr. Abiy Ahmed to have full power and enable him to form transition government with all stakeholders by dismantling the current EPRDF party structure, ethnic politics, divide rule of TPLF era system, replacing the TPLF era Constitution, banning political parties based on ethnicity, or the other option.

If Dr Abiy is not prepared for such, the Ethiopian National Defence Force has national duty to take the responsibility to save the country by taking measure that would root out the causes of all the chaos, displacement, death and fear of Ethiopians in their own country by forming transitional provisional government tasked with dismantling EPRDF, Ethnic politics, the current ethnic pseudo-federalism, replace TPLF’s constitution and hand over to elected civilian government based on citizen based politics with in a year or two.

May God help us to save our country and our people.

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By BefeQadu Z. Hailu

In an inaugural speech, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali turned almost all pessimists in to EPRDF enthusiasts. It is like he has all traits of a leader ‘naturally’. His charisma coupled with his fluency in three local languages of “the competing nationalities” made him look like the right person to fix the mess Ethiopian state is in. But, is he really the person to fix Ethiopia? Or, should we hope something else?

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The mountains are one of the country’s main tourist attractions and have faced blazes on and off over the last two weeks. Its national park is home to several rare animal species

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Firefighters unravel hose. (photo credit: Marc Israel Sellem)

Israel has sent firefighters to help extinguish the large fires raging in Ethiopia’s Simien Mountains, the Foreign Ministry announced on Sunday morning.

The mountains are one of the country’s main tourist attractions and have faced blazes on and off over the last two weeks. Its national park is home to several rare animal species including the Waliya ibex and Gelada baboon.

“Under the instruction of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Public Security and the Ministry of Defense, a special delegation of firefighters arrived in Addis Ababa on Sunday morning to help extinguish the huge fire that has raged for two weeks in the Simien Mountains area in northern Ethiopia,” the ministry said in a statement.

The delegation of 10 fire fighters from the Fire and Rescue Authority was sent to the country together with an expert from the Home Front Command. The group are making their way to the fire area where it will join the local firefighting forces.

“The arrival of the delegation was organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Israeli Embassy in Addis Ababa under the auspices of Prime Minister Netanyahu after Israel’s government immediately acceded to a request from the Ethiopian government for assistance in extinguishing the fire,” the Foreign Ministry explained. “A request [for assistance] was made by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed during a conversation with Prime Minister Netanyahu on Friday.”

Israel’s Ambassador to Ethiopia Raphael Morav tweeted on Sunday morning that “#Israel stands by #Ethiopia in fighting the wildfire in Simien Mountain National Park.”

“An @israel i mission of 9 experts in firefighting has landed this morning in Gondar to join the local forces in Simien Mountain. They will also advise on various techniques in containing fire,” he wrote.

View image on Twitter

Raphael Morav@MoravRaphael

#israel stands by #Ethiopia in fighting the wildfire in Simien Mountain National Park. An @israel i mission of 9 experts in firefighting has landed this morning in Gondar to join the local forces in Simien Mountain. They will also advise on various techniques in containing fir

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10:12 PM – Apr 13, 2019

South Africa, France and Kenya have also said they will send assistance to help extinguish the blaze.

Last month, a wildfire ravaged through the region damaging 342 hectares of a forest in the national park.

The post ABIY SWEEPS THE STREETS, BUT ISRAEL SENDS FIREFIGHTERS TO ASSIST IN ETHIOPIAN MOUNTAIN BLAZE appeared first on Satenaw Ethioopian News & Breaking News: Your right to know!.

By Prof. Alemayehu G. Mariam

Green-ey’d monsters in Ethiopia

Until April 2, 2019, the first anniversary of H.E. Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s term in office, the narrative and refrain of Ethiopia’s Chicken Littles and the boys crying wolf was, “The sky is falling on Ethiopia”.

Today, the new narrative of Ethiopia’s Chicken Little prophets of doom and gloom is, “Ethiopia is a failed state”.

How unrequited ambition makes the green-ey’d monster blind.

But the whole world sees a rising and shining state, not a failed state, in the northeastern corner of Africa under the phenomenal leadership of H.E. Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed.

The world press extols PM Abiy’s leadership in words and phrases unheard of for any political leader anywhere.

The Financial Times, a newspaper that has been in operation for over a century and half, wrote, “Abiy Ahmed has overseen the swiftest political liberalisation in Ethiopia’s more than 2,000-year history.”

BBC wrote, “Abiy Ahmed has been doing the seemingly impossible ever since he unexpectedly became prime minister of Ethiopia in April.” He has done “the “equivalent of making the sun rise from the west.”

The Washington Post editorialized, “Abiy Ahmed pulls off an astonishing turnaround for Ethiopia”.

CNN even tried to explain “Why Ethiopians believe their new prime minister is a prophet” and concluded, “Abiy Ahmed is the prime minister who captured Africa’s imagination.”

To top it all off, the Peace Research Institute Oslo, regarded as the world’s “oldest and most prominent peace research center” nominated PM Abiy as the leading candidate for the  2019 Nobel Peace Prize.

PM Abiy is only 43 years old.

Until about a year ago, he was unknown not only internationally but in his own country.

Since taking office on April 2, 2018, Ethiopia’s political has beens, woulda, shoulda, coulda and wanna be political leaders have been wagging their venomous forked tongues and gunning for him.

PM Abiy, 42 when he took office, is the youngest head of state in Africa.

The average age of the 15 oldest African leaders today is 77.

Interestingly, the dotard prophets of doom and gloom are pushing 70.

The irrefutable fact is that Abiy Ahmed has done more to make Ethiopia free and democratic than all previous Ethiopian leaders combined!

But the dotard self-proclaimed leaders of Ethiopia can’t handle PM Abiy.

They are all turning green with envy because he has done in one year more than they have done in their lifetimes combined.

They don’t know how to handle PM Abiy.

He is fast but not furious.

He floats like a butterfly but moves like a cheetah.

He wears a velvet glove over an iron fist but speaks softly.

He does not punch like a bush thug. He stings outlaws with the rule of law.

But he has enemies in the Old Animal Farm: Daylight hyenas, old hippos, wolves in sheep skin, snakes in the grass, pig-heads and stubborn mules.

Regardless of what they say or do on the Farm, PM Abiy does not get bitter. He gets better and better, every day.

What drives the prophets of doom and gloom?

I have my own “theory” about the Chicken Littles and the boys who cry wolf in Ethiopia.

I suspect many of them are wanna be, has been, coulda, woulda and shoulda been political leaders.

I suspect many of the old fogies yapping at Abiy’s feet have been unable to thaw themselves out of the deep freeze of the politics of the 1970s but today see  themselves as the comeback kids.

I suspect many of them wasted their lives pretending to be leaders babbling revolutionary mumbo jumbo.

But they all share one thing in common: Irrepressible jealousy of Abiy Ahmed.

They can’t stand the political wunderkind Abiy Ahmed who has become the equivalent of a rock star in national, regional, continental and global leader.

That is a fact.

But I am not surprised by the venom of the political leaders manqué.

I  suspect many of them have tried unsuccessfully to ingratiate themselves with PM Abiy and jockey for a position in his administration.

But when they found out they have no place because they ain’t got what it takes,  they stand outside and spit venom.

How true William Congreve’s verse, “Hell hath no Fury like a woman scorned.”

Hell has no fury like those spurned and turned back from entering the halls of power!

The prophets of doom and gloom, masters of  fear and smear and Ethiopia “the failed state”

Ethiopia’s Chicken Little prophets of doom and gloom are grasping at straws talking about Ethiopia as a “failed state”. They predict “civil war” and implosion of Ethiopia in an ethnic conflagration.

An April 8, 2019 commentary proclaims, “Ethiopia [is] A Country on the Brinks”. The author argues during the past year under PM Abiy, Ethiopia’s “situation has gone down from bad to worse with a serious possibility of a civil war” and  “Ethiopia is fast becoming a failed state in its truest sense.”

The prescription to save Ethiopia from the state of failed state is to find a leader who could coordinate a soft coup against PM Abiy.

(They say, “To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”

To those who have lived their lives plotting coups, they think everything can be solved with a military hammer.)

That leader will presumably marshal public support by “campaign[ing] for Ethiopian unity and Ethiopiawinet’’, embracing  “a broad agenda”, using “a pool of experts around him who can challenge him” and “listen[ing] not [] lectur[ing]”.

But the ultimate test for this phantasmic leader is his willingness to “abolish the constitution, dissolve parliament and lead a transitional government by decree.”

In an August 18, 2016 op-ed, the same commentator above declared, “A civil war, and possibly genocide, is in the making in the Horn of Africa, in Ethiopia. The commentator argued:

If civil war begins in Ethiopia it will be unprecedented catastrophe the likes of which has not been seen in Africa. It will also create an opportunity for extremist like al Shabab to flourish in next-door Ethiopia, which has a 40% Muslim population. Because of the Nile River, the lifeline of both Sudan and Egypt, instability in Ethiopia will be a major concern and it is likely that these countries will intervene either directly or indirectly.

In an interview in 2011, the same commentator was prophesying Apocalypse Now(forward clip 44:16-46:14; 1:11-1:13:45) over Ethiopia as a failed state. He adamantly stated that “Change can come only from struggle within Ethiopia and anyone who thinks otherwise is dreaming”.

In 2019, after change came with the blood, sweat and tears of the young people in Ethiopia, the same commentator now wants to snatch and  hijack that victory from the young people and give it to a leader he and his clique will anoint in the  backroom.

What arrogance! What hubris!

Let there be no mistake: Those who brought the change and paid with their blood, sweat and tears will defend it with their lives.

A September 2016 commentary declared, “Ethiopia Is On The Brink Of Collapse”.  The reasons given ranged from “political protests to a crippling drought”.

A January 11, 2018 commentary announced, “Ethiopia Is Falling Apart. Tepid reforms and halfhearted concessions won’t save the country’s authoritarian government from its existential crisis.” The commentator prescribed:

The country’s leaders must resolve to release all political prisoners without delay or preconditions; fully implement the country’s rarely applied but progressive constitution; ensure the independence and impartiality of the judiciary; end unchecked impunity for corrupt officeholders and security officials; and hold to account those responsible for the death and displacement of hundreds of Ethiopians.

A bizarre January 28, 2018 commentary  declared, “Ethiopia is following the path of failed states in the Horn of Africa, North Africa and the Middle East. Ethiopia is in danger of falling apart—and falling prey to predator nations like Iran.”

In a September 22, 2018 commentary, another commentator in earnest urged: “Declare State Of National Urgency (military takeover) in Ethiopia: Remove Abiy Ahmed, Arrest Terrorist Leaders”.

Just today another commentator declared it is the “national duty of Ethiopian defence force to save Ethiopia”.

Why is Ethiopia a “failed state”? Redux

Back in July 2008, when ye dil atbiya arbegnoch/jegnoch (heroes who show up after victory is won), were nowhere to be seen, I wrote a commentary entitled, “Why is Ethiopia a “failed state”?” and battled the erstwhile ambassador of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Samuel Assefa over the issue of Ethiopia as a “failed state”.

In explaining why Ethiopia is a failed state under the misrule of the TPLF, I created an equation:

FL+FR(k)/time =FS

Zenawi (FL) [failed leader] and his TPLF-EPDRF syndicate (FR(k)) [failed regime) operating a kleptocracy (government of thieves) over a period of 17 years (/time) produced a failed state in Ethiopia (FS).

What exactly is a “failed state”?

Over the past couple of decades, various euphemistic neologisms have been invented as descriptors for certain anarchic and dysfunctional “states” in countries such as Somalia, Ethiopia, the Sudan, Eritrea, Zimbabwe and others.

Interchangeable phrases/concepts for “failed states” include: “Fragile States”, “Crises States”, “Dysfunctional States”, “Declining States”, “Disintegrating States”, Collapsing States”, “Dissolving States”, “Disordered States”, “Collapsed States”, “Paralyzed States”, “Virtual States”, “vulnerable states”, and even “etats sans gouvernement” (states without government), among others.

While there is no single universally accepted definition of a “failed state”, scholars and researchers in political science, sociology, economics, and even international law use the phrase to describe a regime/government that is incapable of meeting the most elementary functions of governance.

A failed state is most readily identified by the existence of rampant corruption and criminality in the state apparatus, massive human rights violations, rigged elections, predatory elites with protracted monopoly on power, an absence of the rule of law, severe ethnic divisions and sectarianism, deep economic crises and a significant refugee problem caused by political persecution, among other factors.

The Failed (Fragile) States Index is an annual ranking of 178 countries based on  The Fund for Peace’s proprietary Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST).

For years, Ethiopia under the Zenawi/TPLF regime has ranked at the top end of the Failed (Fragile) States Index.

In 2008, Katherine Wheeler of Foreign Policy Magazine in a videotaped interview asked TPLF ambassador Samuel Assefa point blank, “Is Ethiopia a failed state?”  A visibly flustered, Assefa responded:

What exactly does it mean to be a failed state? Whatever it means, it [Ethiopia] is not a failed state. But I am not so sure we know what it means to be a failed state according to this model. I believe the indices themselves are radically insufficient to give us a sense of what is going on in Ethiopia. It is a huge political experiment now, incredibly complex society, a very old, old country whose claim to be one of the creators of civilization should be taken seriously.

Assefa categorically denied Ethiopia was a failed state but shifted the focus on America claiming America during the “Civil War was the biggest example of a failed state”.

Assefa insisted America was a “failed state” until the 1960s because it had racial barriers to voting.

But Ethiopia is not a failed state. Assefa unabashedly argued, in “Ethiopia, my own country, voting rights are not abridged by restrictions of the kind that were prevalent in this country [America] until very recently.”

Assefa alleged the Index was made up by “the West, the United States” so that they can measure up other countries by their standards. It is “disturbing, this whole idea of exporting one’s own model of democracy to others, using it as a benchmark.” Assefa schooled his interviewer by pointing out that “Palestine, Hamas and Fatah” are “very good example[s] of a failed state”.

In a rather zany metaphor aimed at discrediting the “failed state index”, Assefa concluded, “A former professor of mine… a great critic of this approach once wrote that if I should require my leg amputated, I should prefer a very skilled surgeon to a butcher, rather brutal language.”

Is Ethiopia a failed state, or a state that has a failed leader and a  failed regime?

For decades, Ethiopia has had political institutions that have been corrupted to a point where they have been rendered ineffective in performing basic governmental functions.

But an important distinction can be made between Ethiopia and Somalia, the archetypal “failed state”.

Somalia is considered the archetypal failed state because for over two decades it barely had institutions or governance structures that perform basic functions or public services such as security, education, health, transportation. For decades,  Somalia has been in a perpetual state of clan warfare and in 2006 the TPLF warlord Meles Zenawi  joined the clan fray by conducting his own private war in support of one clan against the others.

But Ethiopia has a failed state not because it has disintegrated or non-functioning political institutions; rather, Ethiopia has a failed state because its public and governmental institutions and processes were co-opted, manipulated and distorted for the singular purpose of maximizing the survivability and longevity of the Zenawi TPLF regime.

Ethiopia was state captured by the TPLF and as a captive state failed miserably!

On every measure of state failure, this can be demonstrated.

The security apparatuses (army, police, etc.) in the TPLF regime were used as private military forces to suppress the citizenry and opposition elements and prevent the growth of democratic institutions that can challenge the TPLF.

The parliament was used to rubberstamp the decisions of the TPLF bosses.

Judicial institutions were populated by TPLF political hacks in robes who decide matters through corrupt practices; or in high profile cases, pursuant to political instructions.

There was rampant disregard for the rule of law as the “constitution” of the country was ignored and trampled by the TPLF bosses and the rights of citizens flagrantly violated.

Elections were rigged and stolen in broad daylight by the TPLF. In 2010 the TPLF bosses claimed a 99.6 percent victory in the parliamentary elections followed by 100 percent in 2015.

Corruption was rampant in every aspect of public life under the TPLF regime. Lucrative government contracts and transactions were given to businesses and businessmen with ties to the TPLF regime. For instance, Metals and Engineering Corporation (METEC), the largest company in Ethiopia was a wholly owned subsidiary of the TPLF. PM Abiy’s campaign against corruption resulted in the arrest and prosecution of TPLF Brigadier General Kinfe Dagnew, head of METEC and 29 current and former senior employees.

The so-called privatization of state-owned enterprises ended up becoming a  conduit for the transfer of state wealth to friends, supporters and cronies of the TPLF regime. Gold mines, tobacco and brewery plants were delivered (privatized) to TPLF friends at fire sale prices.

The few super-rich in Ethiopia, the vast majority of whom were drinking at the TPLF trough, were squirreling away hundreds of millions of dollars in British, European and American banks, manifestly reducing the available investment inside the country and magnifying the country’s dependence on foreign economic aid and loans and increasing its debt.

For the last 27 years, Ethiopia was forced into becoming a failed state through the manipulation, machinations and incompetence of the TPLF regime.

For 27 years, the TPLF regime ruled with an iron fist and massive repression. Arbitrary arrests, extrajudicial killings, torture and other abusive political persecution practices went on unchecked.

The TPLF regime consistently interfered in the functioning of judicial institutions and undermined their legitimacy, efficacy and credibility by installing political hacks as judges.

The TPLF regime ignored the welfare of the people as it lined its pockets with billions of dollars.

Ethiopians continued to suffer from preventable diseases such as HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and diarrheal diseases.  An incredible  85 percent of  Ethiopia’s rural population does not having access to health care.

In March 2007, Meles Zenawi, responding to a question on the Ethiopian “doctor drain” shocked health officials and physicians attending a conference by declaring, “We don’t need doctors in Ethiopia….Let the doctors leave for wherever they want. They should get no special treatment.”

The TPLF regime greatest failure was its criminal indifference to the plight of Ethiopia’s youth. Millions of children were missing out on education. Most of these children faced a future of despair and misery.

The grand scheme in state failure in Ethiopia over the past 27 years was the TPLF’s phony ethnic federalism, a diabolical concept borrowed from South Africa’s apartheid system of creating homelands for different ethnic groups.

The TPLF’s Kilili-stans (similar to apartheid South Africa’s Bantustans) were created to ensure Ethiopians from diverse ethnic, religious, linguistic and regional backgrounds will be unable to make common cause by accentuating historical grievances, magnifying real and perceived differences and polarizing one ethnic group, region, religion, language, etc., against another.

In “ethnic federalism” ethnicity becomes the defining feature of governance, access to political and economic power, political survivability and self-identity. Fear and loathing is the currency of ethnic politics.

How to Disenroll Ethiopia From the Failed States Index

In 2008, I specifically identified how Ethiopia can disenroll from the rogue’s gallery of failed states.

Over the past year, PM Abiy has met all of the requirements I set in 2008.

In 2008, I argued for Ethiopia to be removed from the Failed States Index it must meet at least the following benchmarks:

Release of ALL political prisoners and restore the democratic rights of the people.

During the first few months of his administration, PM Abiy released ALL political prisoners in the country! Period.

Institute democratic reforms with accountability and uphold the rule of law. 

PM Abiy has instituted massive reforms on accountability and rule of law. PM Abiy has refused to impose collective punishment on an entire group for the crimes of just a few. Dozens of officials have been arrested on major corruption charges. In the past few days, dozens have been arrested on corruption charges.

Provide protections for human rights and civic society organizations and ensure adequate monitoring and reporting processes for human rights violations.

PM Abiy has repealed the former repressive civil society law and replaced it with a new one, Proclamation No. 1113/2019.

PM Abiy has allowed (and excluded NONE) all dissidents, opposition leaders and others declared “terrorists” by the TPLF regime to return to the country and participate in the political process peacefully without any preconditions.

PM Abiy has managed to peacefully integrate thousands of armed insurgents to join and participate in the political process peacefully.

PM Abiy living up to his pledge to scrap the TPLF’s anti-terrorism proclamation which has been used to arbitrarily arrest opposition figures, NGO leaders, journalists, and other critics of the government established a Legal and Justice Affairs Advisory Council  A law that conforms to international human rights standards should be in place in the foreseeable future. .

From the very beginning, I challenged Meles Zenawi personally to get rid of his anti-terrorism law because it is a cut-and-paste job  which has little that is legally defensible.

Set up an independent judicial system free from political interference.

PM Abiy religiously preaches rule of law not only to society but the military and security elements. He has practiced rule of law in its purest form. DUE PROCESS. NO person shall be arrested, prosecuted or convicted without the due process of law.

His critics have urged him to uphold the rule of law by imposing collective punishment. He has forthrightly refused to  indiscriminate military force and violence in the name of rule of law and law and order.

Let there be no mistake. He has gone after criminals who have been involved in lawlessness throughout the country and many have been brought to justice, others are awaiting justice.

In November 2018, he appointed as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Meaza Ashenafi, a prominent civil society leader founder and executive director of the Ethiopian Women Lawyers Association. CJ Maeza has started the long and arduous task of building a professional and independent judiciary while fighting corruption and maladministration of justice.

Bring to justice all human rights abusers, including the killers of 193 innocent men, women and children and those who wounded 763 others in the post-2005 election period, and thousands of others.

PM Abiy has arrested dozens of officials who were at the helm of government agencies infamous for perpetrating gross human rights violations such as torture and the arbitrary detention of people including in secret facilities.

The notorious Bereket Simon, Mele Zenawi’s Heinrich Himmler, is behind bars now.

I have “indicted” Bereket Simon on various charges of crimes against humanity in the Meles Massacres of 2005. In time, I am confident all the criminals in the Meles Massacres will be brought to justice.

Improve election procedures to ensure fraud-free elections, and refrain from rigging and stealing elections.

PM Abiy appointed Birtukan Mideksa, a highly respected former judge and leading opposition figure to head Ethiopia’s electoral board.

Birtukan was imprisoned by Meles Zenawi time and again because she believed and declared Zenawi stole the 2005 election in broad daylight.

Those who know Birtukan’s suffering under the TPLF regime would never believe she would return to Ethiopia. But PM Abiy was able to persuade Birtukan to return to Ethiopia after years of imprisonment by the TPLF and 7 years in exile. Only a man with extraordinary persuasive powers could convince Birtukan to return and serve her country.

With Birtukan at the helm of the elections board, I have no doubts whatsoever that Ethiopia will have a free and fair election for the first time in its 2000-year history in May 2020!

Repeal all censorship and restrictive press laws.

PM Abiy has removed all censorship on the press. “Hundreds of websites, blogs and satellite-tv channels have been unblocked since Abiy Ahmed took office as prime minister in April last year. For the first time in 13 years there are no journalists in prison; no fewer than 23 publications and six privately owned satellite channels have been given licenses by the Ethiopian Broadcasting Authority since July.”

In response to abuse of speech and press freedom, he is currently circulating a draft hate speech law which is in public discussion and comment. I believe the final version of that law will meet international standards of press freedom.

Undertake a genuine program of privatization in land and other government-owned sectors.

In February 2019, the Ethiopian government has announced  Ethio Telecom would be the first of four major state corporations to be sold to private investors. The method of privatization is going to be sale of shares. Among enterprises to be privatized include Ethiopian Airlines, Ethiopian Electric Power, and Ethiopian Shipping and Logistics Services Enterprise.

In time, land will also be privatized.

What else has PM Abiy failed to do in the “failed state” of Ethiopia?

In October 2018, PM Abiy assigned 50 percent of all ministerial posts to women including ministries of peace, trade and industry, and defense.

How many non-failed states have done that?

PM Abiy has brought order and harmony among the “failed states” of the Horn region by “improving prospects for lasting peace in the Horn has created a significant reservoir of regional and international goodwill. Ethiopia’s relationship with the Gulf states has also significantly improved over the past year. the normalization of relations with Eritrea after twenty years of discord, bringing a massive peace dividend to a vast area of the Horn of Africa that had long been undermined by proxy conflicts between Addis Ababa and Asmara.”

When was the last time the “failed states” of the Horn of Africa join up and agree to create a common market, open borders and open markets?

Alas!

PM Abiy is dragging all the “Failed States” of the Horn, kicking and screaming, into Rising States with peace brokered in South Sudan, good relations between Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti and the prospect of a prosperous future for all.

How has PM Abiy done on the economic front?

Let’s look at the record.

As a result of PM Abiy’s effort, The World Bank provided Ethiopia with $1.2 billion in direct budget support, the “largest loan ever to a country in sub-Saharan Africaand the first such loan to Ethiopia  in 13 years after lending was suspended  in the wake of the disputed elections of 2005.”

When PM Abiy took the helm in April 2018, Ethiopia’s public debt was moving skyward and gross official reserves nosediving.

In June 2018, when PM Abiy was barely two months in office, Ethiopia had the equivalent to less than one month’s worth of imports in foreign exchange.

PM Abiy travelled to the United Arab Emirates and managed to arrange a $1 billion dollar immediate deposit in Ethiopia’s national bank to ease the severe foreign currency shortage and a firm commitment for $2 billion in investments.

For years, Ethiopia faced severe foreign exchange shortages. Among the causes of the shortage include capital flight (money illegally moved aboard), disproportionate access given to TPLF private businesses, state (TPLF-owned)  enterprises and government (TPLF) sponsored infrastructure projects.

PM Abiy also managed to persuade private investors from the Emirates to undertake a $2 billion mixed-use development in the capital city of Addis creating more than 4,000 residences and community urban space.

In 2011, Global Financial Integrity (GFI) reported, “illicit financial flows out of Ethiopia nearly doubled to US$3.26 Billion in 2009 over the previous year, with corruption, kickbacks and bribery accounting for the vast majority of that increase.”

GFI concluded, “ The people of Ethiopia are being bled dry. No matter how hard they try to fight their way out of absolute destitution and poverty, they will be swimming upstream against the current of illicit capital leakage”.

In light of the TPLF’s continuous plunder of the country’s forex, it is not surprising to see the following depressing data:

Gross official reserves
2011/12- $2.26 billion      2012/13 – $2.36 billion

Gross official reserves
2013/14- $2.49 billion    2014/15 – $3.24 billion

Gross official reserves
2015/16- $3.24 billion    2016/17 – $3.40 billion

Gross official reserves
2017/18- $3.19 billion    2018/19 – $3.67 billion (IMF stf. est.)

What has PM Abiy done on the debt front?

Ethiopia is up the wazoo in debt.

The TPLF has been financing its corrupt enterprises with stolen and embezzled loans.

Ethiopia’s Public Debt is skyrocketing:

2012/13= $37.4 billion
2013/14= $46.8 billion
2014/15= $54.0 billion
2015/16= $55.4 billion
2016/17= $56.9 billion
2017/18= $59 billion
2018/19= $58.1 billion

In September 2018, PM Abiy successfully negotiated to get China to restructure some of the debt obtained to finance a $4 billion railway linking its capital Addis Ababa with neighboring Djibouti.

In February 2019, Prime Minister Abiy told parliament that his government has successfully renegotiated the repayment period for 60% of its external debt.

To revive the economy totally destroyed by the TPLF, PM Abiy over the past year has sought help from the World Bank which  injected $1.7 billion in a direct loan in an effort to narrow the trade deficit, which currently stands at 500%.

He also arranged loans from a number of multilateral institutions, primarily the World Bank in the range of $US 7.8 billion. The Africa Development Bank and China have also granted huge sums in loans to Ethiopia.

PM Abiy doing his best trying to keep an Ethiopia drowning in debt afloat.

What have PM Abiy’s critics done over the last year?

Not a doggone thing!

Correction!

They have been moaning and groaning.

They have been whining and griping.

They have been grousing and grumbling.

They have been carping and sniveling.

They have been clucking and quacking.

They have been cackling and braying.

They have been bellyaching, headaching and heartaching.

They have been daydreaming military coups and takeovers.

But they ain’t done a damn thing!

I have one message for all of them: Get a life.

Correction. I have a second message:

Lead, follow or get the hell out of the way!!!

On a personal note

There is no question Ethiopia was a failed state until Abiy Ahmed showed up in 2018!

Today, Ethiopia is a rising and shining state.

Today, Ethiopia is the Spirit of Africa, just like her majestic airline!

Today, the world looks at Ethiopia with wonderment.

Against this background, all of the naysayers, doomers and gloomers and moaners and groaners to me sound like Scarlett O’Hara in “Gone With the Wind” tearfully pleading with Rhett Butler, “Where shall I go? What shall I do?”

Paraphrasing the immortal words Rhett Butler, “Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn what the Chicken Littles and the boys who cry wolf have to say, do or go to…”

I care about the facts which I have laid out above. DEAL WITH IT!

Ethiopia is a rising state and nation, no doubts .about it! 

We should all thank Abiy Ahmed for it!

The post To the Chicken Little Prophets of Doom and Gloom: Ethiopia is a Rising State and Nation! appeared first on Satenaw Ethioopian News & Breaking News: Your right to know!.

PARIS (REUTERS) – Negative publicity over the grounding of Boeing’s 737 MAX jet following two fatal accidents is set to wipe $12 billion off the value of the planemaker’s brand, Brand Finance said.

The post UK Firm Sees 737 MAX Crisis Wiping $12 Billion off Boeing Brand Value appeared first on Satenaw Ethioopian News & Breaking News: Your right to know!.

Ministry of Finance Title:
RFISUGARCORP2019

Table of Contents

SECTION I – INSTRUCTIONS………………………………………………… 2
INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………………… 2
OBJECTIVES……………………………………………………………………. 2
SCHEDULE OF EVENTS…………………………………………………….. 3
OBTAINING A COPY OF THE RFI……………………………………….. 3
PREPARATION OF RESPONSE…………………………………………… 3
ADDENDA………………………………………………………………………. 4
SUBMISSION OF INFORMATION………………………………………. 4
WITHDRAWAL OF SUBMITTAL…………………………………………. 5
INQUIRIES……………………………………………………………………… 5
PUBLIC RECORD……………………………………………………………… 5
SECTION II – SCOPE……………………………………………………………. 5
Request for Information…………………………………………………. 5
SECTION III – SUBMITTAL………………………………………………….. 7
RESPONDENT INFORMATION AND AUTHORIZATION…………. 7

SECTION I – INSTRUCTIONS

INTRODUCTION

The Ministry of Finance of the Federal Democratic Republic Government of Ethiopia (the “Ministry”) and Ethiopian Sugar Corporation with collaborative effort invites sealed responses to this Request for Information (RFI) aimed at completing the necessary pre-privatization activities to fully or partially privatize the Sugar Corporation assets in the form of 13 sugar projects that are currently either fully completed and in production or partially completed. In order to incorporate inputs from the private sector, this RFI has been published to facilitate information gathering from interested parties that previously shown interest to acquire Sugar Corporation properties and new prospective buyers in a structured and transparent format.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of the RFI are:

1. Market sounding to identify interested potential investors.
2. To identify which sugar project investors are interested in.
3. Obtain information on the preferred mode of private sector participation in the Sugar Corporation i.e. full/partial privatization or Public Private Partnership (PPP).
4. To identify investors approach for the source of capital and the investment structure for the acquisition.

This RFI is issued as a means of general approach discovery to complete the necessary steps for pre-privatization activities, and for information gathering only. This RFI is for planning purposes only and should not be construed as a competitive solicitation nor should it be construed as an obligation on the Ministry’s or Sugar Corporation part to enter into any contract or make any purchase. This RFI is not an invitation for privatization or a PPP process; it is only to initiate the private sector participation process. Based on information provided by respondents to this RFI, the Ministry will determine the form and mode to engage the private sector in a competitive tender process in line with Ethiopian government Laws and regulations.

No purchases will be made as a result of this request.

SCHEDULE OF EVENTS

Submittal Location:

Minister’s Office at the Ministry of Finance 4^th Floor Room Number 404
Or by email RFI2019@mofed.gov.et or RFI2019SUGARCORP@gmail.com
Electronic submittal is preferred using the above two email addresses.

OBTAINING A COPY OF THE RFI

All documents and information involving this RFI process are available from the Ministry’s website, the Ethiopian Sugar Corporation website and the Public Enterprises Holding and Administration Agency’s website.

www.mofed.gov.et
www.ethiopiansugar.com
www.mope.gov.et

PREPARATION OF RESPONSE

All information shall be submitted in accordance with the instructions provided in this document. No submittal shall be altered, amended or withdrawn after the specified submittal due time and date.

It is the responsibility of all respondents to examine the entire RFI and seek clarification of any requirement that may not be clear and to check all responses for accuracy before submitting a response. Respondents are strongly encouraged to:

1. Consider applicable laws and/or economic conditions that may affect cost, progress, performance, or furnishing of the products or services.
2. Study and carefully correlate respondent’s knowledge and observations with the RFI document and other related data.
3. Promptly notify the Ministry’s office of all conflicts, errors, ambiguities, or discrepancies which a respondent has discovered in or between the RFI document and such other related documents.

The Ministry does not reimburse the cost of developing, presenting or providing any response to this RFI. Responses submitted for consideration should be prepared simply and economically, providing adequate information in a straightforward and concise manner. The respondent is responsible for all costs incurred in responding to this RFI. All materials and documents submitted in response to this RFI become the property of the Ministry and Sugar Corporation and will not be returned.

ADDENDA

Any changes to this document will be in the form of an addendum, which will be available at: the Ministry’s website, the Ethiopian Sugar Corporation website and the Public Enterprises Holding and Administration Agency’s website.

SUBMISSION OF INFORMATION

Responds shall submit the required information to the Ministry’s office on or prior to the deadline indicated in the Schedule of Events. Contents must be in a sealed envelope and addressed or electronically to the following address with the information indicated below.

Electronic submittal is preferred using the below two email addresses.

BY EMAIL:                                            RFI2019@MOFED.GOV.ET

OR

RFI2019SUGARCORP@gmail.com

BY POST:          MINISTER’S OFFICE AT THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE 4^TH FLOOR ROOM NUMBER 404

The following information should be noted on the outside of the envelope:

Respondent’s Name

Respondent’s Address (as shown on the Certification Page)

RFI Title

WITHDRAWAL OF SUBMITTAL

At any time prior to the RFI due date and time, a respondent (or designated representative) may withdraw the submittal by submitting a request in writing and signed by a duly authorized representative. Facsimiles, telegraphic or mailgram withdrawals shall not be considered.

INQUIRIES

In order for written inquiries to be addressed, they shall be received by April 26, 2019, by 5:00 p.m. local Addis Abeba time and emailed to RFI2019@MOFED.GOV.ET OR RFI2019SUGARCORP@GMAIL.COM. Inquiries received will then be answered in an addendum and published at the Ministry’s website, the Ethiopian Sugar Corporation website and the Public Enterprises Holding and Administration Agency’s website.

PUBLIC RECORD

All submittals in response to this RFI shall become the property of the Ministry and become a matter of public record available for review pursuant to Ethiopian law.

If a respondent believes that a specific section of its response is confidential, the respondent shall isolate the pages marked confidential in a specific and clearly labeled section of its response. The respondent shall include a written statement as to the basis for considering the marked pages confidential including the specific harm or prejudice if disclosed and the Ministry Legal Office will review and make a determination.

SECTION II – SCOPE

Request for Information

Please note the questions that are included in this RFI are a starting point and should not restrict interested parties to include information and strategies that may be beneficial and pertinent to the privatization process. Ministry of Finance, a designee of the government to overlook the pre-privatization process and execution of transactions will review submissions and communicate subsequent actions. Please sue an attachment to this RFI to elaborate your answers to the below questions.

1. Please provide the following information of your company:

• Name of the Company
• Registered address/country of origin
• Year of registration
• Contact name (Name & job title of person handling this RFI with the Ministry of Finance)
• Company email, website address, tele phone, fax number and other details
• Please attach any relevant information about your company as an appendix to this document. Information should, at a minimum, illustrate the capacity of the company to engage in the private participation process of sugar estates.

2. Are you involved in the sugar or sugar related activities? What are your core business competencies? (Brief statement of what your company does – 100 to 200 words maximum mentioning your experience and your plans for the future). If you are thinking to enter the sugar market through this opportunity, please mention what consideration you take to make this decision.
3. Please explain in full details of ownership of your company and its affiliations.
4. Provide your company’s summary financial performance and financial statements for the past five years clearly showing the turnover, profitability, asset base and debt structure.
5. Out of the 13 sugar projects indicate the project you are interested in.  [If your company is interested in more than one sugar project, please indicate as per your preference]
6. Which part of the project assets you prefer to invest?

• Allocated sugarcane farmland for the project with the consideration of the irrigation system for each project
• sugarcane factory
• Ethanol factory of the project
• The entire project assets (allocated farmland, sugarcane factory, the project ethanol factory or other assets which are stated in the portfolio)

7. What mode of transaction would you prefer?

• Full privatization
• Partial privatization. If so, please indicate the percental structure you would prefer to go forward.
• PPP e.g. Management contract, Operations and maintenance etc.
• Does your company have interest in any different acquisition strategy than mentioned in the above? If yes, please elaborate further on your submittal.

8. What is your acquisition-financing plan? Debt, equity or both. If you use both, what percentage of debt to equity ratio you plan to use?
9. Please elaborate the methods and the source of your capital. If you have other strategies you would like to implement or suggest for this process that you think suitable, please explain on your submittal.
10. Do you want to invest alone or you have co-investor/s? If yes, please give detailed profile of your co-investor/s, and how does the investment structure will look like? Please provide detailed information if this is the case.
11. Is your investment long term with the strategic view of the sugar market in Ethiopia, or you want buy the asset/s and sell it in the near future to exit the market?
12. After acquisition, would you prefer to export your products or sell it for the local market?
13. After completing the acquisition of your preferred project asset/s, do you want to be involved in the hiring process of executive management, operation or administration team? Or you want to train the local people or you want to restructure the entire management system depending which factory you want to acquire?
14. Do you have similar experience of this kind of acquisition/greenfield investment or joint venture in other country? If yes, please explain your experience how you carry it out and other details which you think important to be covered in this process.
15. Does your company have any prior experience in Ethiopia?
16. In order to participate in the privatization process in Ethiopia, are there any legal or regulatory hurdles that restrict or prohibit your company’s participation?

SECTION III – SUBMITTAL

RESPONDENT INFORMATION AND AUTHORIZATION

Respondent certifies they have read and fully understands this RFI.

Authorized Signature_________________________
Printed Name and Title________________________
Date_______________________________________
Company Name___________________________________________________________
Address__________________________________________________________________
City, State and Zip__________________________________________________________
Code_____________________________________________________________________
Telephone________________________________________________________________
Number__________________________________________________________________
Company’s Fax_____________________________________________________________
Number__________________________________________________________________
Email Address_____________________________________________________________

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Ninety-two prisoners have escaped from a prison in Gambella regional state in Western Ethiopia, state media, Ethiopia News Agency reported on Tuesday.

John Umod, Chief Police Inspector of Gambella City Prison, said the prison break occurred on Monday when guards were trying to stop a fight among inmates.

“A manhunt for the 92 escapees and an investigation are underway,’’ Umod said.

He noted that the prison was housing 316 inmates before the prison break.

In September 2016, a “failed prison break’’ near Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, left at least 23 inmates dead.

(Xinhua/NAN)

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