By Dawit Giorgis

The most militarized zone in the world is Kashmir, Northern India. India and Pakistan claim the land. That is one of the time bombs Britain left when it was forced to leave its colonies. It has been one of the most volatile regions on earth for over 50 years. After being partitioned between the two countries in 1947, a boundary and a ceasefire was agreed and a border dividing the two parts established what is known as The Line of Control.   China also administers part of the state.  The place is known as a major flash point and dangerous, particularly because it involves three nuclear powers  (China, Pakistan and India) and all the others who have a stake in the region. (Ethiopian Forces have been in Kashmir in 1950 as UN Military Observers.)   The Guinness world record also calls Kashmir region as “ the largest militarized territorial dispute on the planet, worlds highest battlefield, highest military base.”

This record is being broken in the Horn of Africa today, as the most militarized and complex security region and a region with the largest number of foreign military bases in the world, except that none of the countries of the region have nuclear capacities. However three of the countries with military bases in the region are nuclear powers. (China, USA and France)

The key to regional instability in the Greater Horn is Ethiopia. Instability in the other countries can be contained but continued instability and civil unrest in Ethiopia will destabilize the entire region and Africa in an unprecedented way. Internal conflict can easily spill over to neighboring countries.  Mass exodus from Ethiopia and the affected regions can bring about the worst humanitarian crisis the world has yet to see. Europe, the Middle East and the USA will be affected in more than one way. Civil unrest and collapse of the state in Ethiopia could invite a proxy war.  It could create crisis in the Red Sea coastal countries. Extremists can take this opportunity and take actions that would further destabilize the country and the region. Once a country submerges into this kind of sinkhole it will be extremely difficult to restore peace like we have seen in Somalia Syria, Yemen and Iraq. That is why all eyes in the region are on Ethiopia. The Ethiopian people and the regime should be aware of the consequences of failing to bring about peaceful change.  No body else should and can do this for them. The forces around them have their own agendas.

The Greater Horn is known to have 7 countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Southern Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti) Ethiopia used to be seen as a regional powerhouse because it has the second largest population in Africa and next to Algeria and Egypt it has the third largest army in Africa[1].

Though Egypt and Yemen are not part of the Greater Horn  they are however part of the security complex. They are all connected through the Nile (Sudan, South Sudan, Egypt and Kenya) or the Red Sea, which is the strategic body of water linking the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean through Bab Al-Madeb, a Straight, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea.  They call it the “choke point”; because much of the world’s commerce goes through this maritime route.  At one point, when Somali pirates ruled the sea, the area was called the most dangerous maritime zone in the world. Now it has been replaced by the Gulf of Guinea. Those who control the Horn of Africa control a major chunk of the world’s economies.  “How long would the EU economies be able to hold out without the energy supplies from the Persian Gulf or the vital Asian imports?”  asks the Foreign Policy Journal[2]

The importance of Yemen in this cannot be understated. Yemen lies along the Red Sea with a coastline of 1900 kms.  Saudi Arabia’s s interest in the region is controlling the Red Sea through the coastal states. If it can control Yemen it controls the entire western coastline of the Red Sea. For Egypt, if it can have influence on Sudan and Eritrea it would mean controlling much of the Eastern Coast of the Red Sea, which means greater influence on Ethiopia.  Israel also has a stake in all this iand for good reasons related to its security.

In the early 70s and 80s there was great energy spent in establishing a pan Arab ideology with the aim of unifying the Arab nations. Since then religious and nationalist factions with in the Arab world have defeated Arab nationalism and the idea of making the Red Sea an Arab lake is no more realistic. Instead Saudi Arabia is playing that role together with the new Gulf  alliance that it has created; hence we see today that alliance deeply involved in the proxy war in Yemen. The actual war is between Iran and the Gulf Alliance; between Sunni sand Shias for control of the strategic region.

The UAE has been building its military infrastructure in Eritrea’s port of Assab and it has conducted operations against Yemen from this base. This military base goes beyond its interest to launch operations on Yemen. It indicates UAE’s ambition in the region. It includes naval docking facility, renovations of the airport and barracks for the personnel.   Saudi Arabia is also using this base.

The UAE’s has also established controversial military base in Somaliland, which could become operational within the very near future. Somaliland is officially part of Somalia but has been seeking recognition since it declared independence. The base is in Berbera, 100km North East of the capital, Hargeisa, and UAE ships have already started docking at its deep-water port.[3]

Qatar has pulled out its troops from Eritrea-Djibouti border where it was acting as peacekeeping force, because of the dispute it has with UAE and Saudi Arabia.  Eritrea has sided with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Alliance fighting in Yemen.

Unconfirmed reports state Egyptian troops have arrived in Eritrea according to Middle East Monitor even though the Eritrean government has fiercely denied this. . Sudan is clearly disturbed by this move. “Sudan’s national army has sent forces to this area to protect Sudan’s security. We have information that some entities are targeting us,” he said after meeting his Ethiopian counterpart in Khartoum. Sudan closed its border with its eastern neighbor Eritrea  and sent troops to the frontier amid reports that Egypt had deployed troops in Eritrea. Khartoum also recalled its ambassador to Egypt following the reports.

However there have been exchange of visits by the two heads of states and there are no details. This warm relationship between Egypt and Eritrea have to do a lot with strained relationships both countries have with Sudan and the worsening political situation in Ethiopia and Egypt’s challenge to the construction of the renaissance dam on the Nile.

Historically Sudan has been an ally of Egypt, which had great influence both in the internal and external polices of successive governments in Sudan. The situation has changed for two main reasons; the ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood from the political scene of Egypt which Sudan has supported and Sudan’s approval of the construction of the renaissance dam.

Eritrea has been supporting the Darfur opposition movements and in fact Darfur’s opposition head quarters are based in Asmara. Eritrea has always participated in the international effort to bring peace in Darfur. Eritrea and South Sudan have a good relationship and to this extent the respective governments have made many public statements. There are many Eritrean entrepreneurs operating in South Sudan.

South Sudan and Egypt have reached a military cooperation agreement. As a result Egypt has began sending its troops to South Sudan. [4]

On Nov. 16, 2017, after four consecutive meetings with all concerned parties, the Cairo “Declaration of Unification” of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) was signed at the headquarters of the Egyptian General Intelligence under the auspices of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and President of Uganda Museveni. The parties agreed that the General Intelligence would follow up on the implementation of the items included in the agreement, without disclosing more details.[5]

This alliance with Egypt worries Sudan and should worry Ethiopia as well. It is more directed against Ethiopia because on two occasions before and after the signing of this declaration the president of Egypt stated “ …we are capable of protecting our national security and water which to us is a question of national security…water is a matter of life or death and no one can touch Egypt’s share of water.”

It seems now that Egypt, South Sudan, Uganda and Eritrea have a common agenda. Egypt’s interest is the uninterrupted flow of the Nile from Ethiopia, South Sudan and Sudan. The waters of the White Nile that flow through South Sudan do not affect the dam under construction like all the other upstream states (Burundi, DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda) because they have their own hydro electric ambitions and therefore cannot oppose Ethiopia’s project. But there are other issues that concern Ethiopia. The 883 kms  stretch of border, where there are illegal firearms trafficking, cross border activities and the influx of refugees from South Sudan which has frequently triggered disputes between South Sudan and Ethiopia.  There are 5000 Ethiopian peace keeping forces in   Sudan, in the region of Abei, the disputed area between South Sudan and Sudan where there is regular cross border raids and refugee flow.

In December of last year Sudan and Russia signed a military cooperation agreement stating that Sudan needs protection from an American “hybrid war “by upgrading its armed forces and perhaps installing a Russian military base along Sudan’s coast line on the Red Sea. The setting up of a base in the Red Sea would give Russia a regional stake and balance the forces, which are increasingly more aligned with the West and enable Russia to position itself incase there is conflict between any of the parties with Ethiopia.[6]

Turkey has been consistent in its relationship with Somalia since 2011 when the President visited Somalia. Turkey’s business in Somalia has flourished since then and its relationship with successive governments in Mogadishu has been solid.  “Turkey has opened its largest overseas military base in Somalia, cementing its relationship with the war-torn nation and strengthening its strategic place in the African continent. The $50 million base ……..will train more than 10,000 soldiers. The move is part of an effort to institutionalize and restructure the police and military services, battle the terrorist group al-Shabaab, and help expand the government’s authority into more towns and regions.”  The involvement of Turkey is welcome by Somalia since the deadline for the withdrawal of African Union Forces is scheduled for 2020. [7]

Turkey is the new player in the region.  Turkish relationship with Saudi Arabia and UAE has been strained since the Arab Spring, which Turkey had supported. Egypt and Turkey’s relationship have soured since the  ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood from Egyptian politics.  Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan received the high order of State of Sudan medal  from President Omar al-Bashir in Khartoum on December 24, 2017.  This new relationship between Sudan and Turkey is seen as a setback to the ongoing efforts to normalize relationships between the two countries. Latest tension between Sudan and Egypt was sparked by an agreement between Khartoum and Ankara during this visit.  Sudan has entered an agreement with Turkey to work together in the fight against terror in East Africa. The agreement signed allows Turkey to have military base in the Red Sea, in Sudanese territorial waters.

Djibouti has suddenly become the most attractive strategic location for the major powers. The reasons being:

• Djibouti’s geo strategic position and its stability in a very unstable environment
• Djibouti handles 90% of landlocked Ethiopia’s maritime trade
• Djibouti is close to multiple conflict zones in Africa and Middle East including Somalia, Yemen…Syria, Iraq.
• Djibouti is a major hub for counter terrorism operation
• Djibouti is close to Suez Canal, world’s busiest maritime route
• Djibouti is a member of the Saudi led coalition fighting in Yemen.

Today Djibouti is the home of several military bases. The USA has the   largest base in Africa at the former French Base Camp Lemonier. France remains with a strengthened contingency.  China has its first military base outside its region. Japan has its first military base since the Second World War.  Recently Djibouti welcomed the construction of Saudi military base on its territory, which has been in progress since 2016.

Amongst all these developments Ethiopia is a simple spectator as it loses its position as a regional power. The regime has become a paper tiger, consumed with its internal rebellion and fighting for its very survival. The Arabs and particularly Saudi Arabia have become the regional power brokers in the Horn of Africa, fulfilling their dreams since their establishment as states.

“ Worried that the United States was withdrawing from its role as security guarantor for the wider region, it (Saudi Arabia) resolved to build up its armed forces and project its power into strategic hinterlands and sea lanes to the north and south. In practice, that has meant winning over less powerful countries along the African coast of the Red Sea — Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia — a region that Ethiopia has sought to place within its sphere of influence.

The Saudi presence along the African Red Sea coast has grown more sharply pronounced since its March 2015 military intervention in Yemen, which drew in Egypt as part of a coalition of Sunni Arab states battling Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The coalition obtained combat units from Sudan and Eritrea, and scrambled to secure the entire African shore of the Red Sea. Then in January of this year — under pressure from Saudi Arabia — Djibouti, Somalia, and Sudan all cut diplomatic ties with Iran. By far the most significant of these was Sudan, which has had long-standing political and military ties with Tehran. For years, Iranian warships called at Port Sudan, and Iranian clandestine supplies to the Palestinian militant group Hamas passed freely along Sudan’s Red Sea coast (occasionally intercepted by Israeli jet fighters). Now Sudan is part of the Saudi-led coalition pummeling the Iran-backed Houthis.

But the most important geopolitical outcome of the Saudi-led Yemen intervention has been the rehabilitation of Eritrea, which capitalized on the war to escape severe political and economic isolation. After it gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993, Eritrea fought wars with each of its three land neighbors — Djibouti, Sudan, and Ethiopia. It also fought a brief war with Yemen over the disputed Hanish Islands in the Red Sea in 1995, after which it declined to reestablish diplomatic relationships.[8]

Poverty ridden, insecure, unstable and dysfunctional states  with  strategic location or resources  are usually the ones that ignite regional conflict and proxy wars.  In the Greater Horn it is going to be Ethiopia. Unlike the Western countries which have anointed Ethiopia as a stable country with the fastest growing economy in the continent, the facts are clearer now than ever: Ethiopia is a failed state nearing complete collapse. The failed states index, now known as fragile states index shows consistently, since 2007 that Ethiopia is one of the least dysfunctional states in the world. The failed states index prepared by the reputable Fund for Peace institute shows: 2007-17^th, 2008-16^th, ,  2009 16^th, 2010 -15th, 2011-20^th, 2012-17^th, 2013-19^th, 2104-19^th, 2015-19^th. 2017-15^th

According to Fund for Peace, “Failed state or fragile state means that the central government is weak, ineffective and has little control over its territories.“ All the major indicators show that Ethiopia has consistently been one of the most fragile states (failed states) in the world. All other indexes  including the United nations (UNCTAD) and Business Insider rank Ethiopia one of the 15^th poorest countries on earth. The UNDP human development index still ranks Ethiopia 173^rd of the 186 in the latest human development index.  Over 77 % of the people live below the poverty line and over 44% live in less than 2 dollars a day with a 30% illiteracy rate.  Unemployment in the cities is as high as 80% and 38 % of children are underweight. It has experienced severe political instability for several years now and the government has lost control of its people. It has one of the largest number of political prisoners in Africa and it has the largest number of journalists in person in the world next to Iran. It is the most censored country in Africa. In internet use Ethiopia is one of the four least users in the world  (the rest are Somalia, Niger and Eritrea) with only 11.6 % of the people using internet.[9]  Ethiopia is among the 9 least mobile telephone users in the world [10]  Djibouti does better than Ethiopia in proportion to its population.

Let us ask ourselves now, and we don’t have to be economists, degree holders or highly educated people. How can a country be all the above and at the same time be the fastest growing economy in the world or in Africa? It just does not make sense. Those who give this fake reports and tell it and retell it on the media are those western powers who have a stake in the status quo not in the truth or in  the well being of the people. They know the method they use to reach to their conclusion is flawed and that they are using the fake numbers that government is providing them. This so called growth has not affected the  great majority of Ethiopians who are as poor as they were for hundreds of years. The only difference is that they are more oppressed now than ever. Now the truth is catching up and Ethiopia is unraveling.

What are all these bases around Ethiopia doing? They are the eyes and the ears of the stakeholders. If Ethiopia implodes or explodes every country in the Horn, plus their neighboring countries, and the Arab world, the Red sea, Indian Ocean Bab Al Mandeb and Israel are going to be directly affected. That is why we see realignment of forces unfolding in the region Every alliance will want to influence the development of events in Ethiopia to its favor. If there is a smooth transition Ethiopia can come out glorious once again.   But if the TPLF/EPRDF does not see a way out then it may chooses to dig deep in and Ethiopia may unravel with possible proxy war. The manner in which the struggle is being conducted in the country will determine this.

The US does not seem to get the point yet. It seems to be pleased with the release of political prisoners and sees this gesture as a path way to transformation. As always, it is making a grand mistake. It is not reading the people. The people are not asking for reform of this government. They want to get rid of this government and thorough a fair and free election with neutral international observers establish a democratic government which guarantees all the freedom that they have lost for 27 years.  They want a transitional government established to oversee a smooth transition. If we hear the people, their message is loud and clear. The time when reform was possible is long gone.  The US and Europe don’t quiet get this. And then when the situation goes into uncharted territory and the conflict escalates to affect their interest they start scrambling and end up in a hotchpotch   arrangement like the one done in London by Herman Cohen, which ended up with not far sighted decision that brought this country to the situation we are in. ( Mr. Cohen admitted that it was a mistake after the damage has been done) Ethiopian people will not allow this to happen again.  The people are taking full control of the unfolding events in Ethiopia. No one faction is in control. It will be a change that will come on the peoples terms and not the terms of any faction or the European and American politicians.

The countries around Ethiopia will interfere and fight amongst themselves and with Ethiopians only if they realize that people are disunited and the country as a whole is not rallying around one banner and one political agenda. If Ethiopians can hold on to the kind of unified pressure that people see to day, there is a possibility that a transitional government can be established under the terms of the people. The option of not doing so will be grave, with all friends and foes developing strategies of intervention in their own interest. If this is allowed to happen Ethiopians will be fighting not their own wars but the wars of the foreign stakeholders.

Next to Algeria and Egypt Ethiopia has the third largest army in Africa[11]

It is the most populated country in the Horn of Africa with a history of having never been colonized. It has 40% of the area of Djbouti, Eritrea and Somalia and 85% of the population of the region.  Yet Ethiopia to day is not the regional power. It has lost any respect it had in the region. Even Djibouti whose economy entirely depends on Ethiopia is flexing its muscles and asserting independence. Its relationship with Ethiopia is based on its own terms. It seems that Ethiopia is more dependent on Djibouti than vice versa. Somalia is slowly coming out of it civil war and has kicked out Ethiopian forces as its alignment with Arab world gives it more confidence. Eritrea is slowly coming out of its cocoon and as we see these days, it has already started preparing for transition in Ethiopia. Egypt and the Arab world are strongly behind it. Egypt has never been as belligerent as it has been.   It is beating the war drums and in diplomacy it is ahead by taking away all the influence Ethiopia had in the region. South Sudan despite its proximity to Ethiopia and the support it got from Ethiopia in the struggle for its independence, is aligning  itself with adversaries of Ethiopian regime.  Ethiopia is at its weakest. Battered by years of rebellion, corruption and ethnic politics and a fake economic growth that is now unraveling, it is most vulnerable to its enemies now than ever.

Ethiopia has a history behind it. It has a resilient people who can fight back and control their own destiny. Ethiopia  has a youth  that will not allow the agenda of a minority government to destroy its country. It has a sturdy and angry youth population that has defied the 27 year Ethiopian style apartheid policies of TPLF and united the fractured ethnic groups. It is a youth that is fired up and determined to prove once again that nothing comes between it and victory.  With a unified peaceful struggle Ethiopians can establish freedom and democracy, repel any external aggression and guarantee peace and  stability in the region.

Let it be.

Dawit W Giorgid

[1] www.globalpfirepower.com

[2] “https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2011/11/19/choke-point-bab-el-mandeb-understanding-the-strategically-critical-horn-of-africa/

[3] https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2017/2/13/somaliland-agrees-to-uae-military-base-in-northern-port[3]

[4] https://www.almonitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/12/egypt-foreign-policy-south-sudan-africa-arab.html

[5] https://www.almonitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/12/egypt-foreign-policy-south-sudan-africa-arab.html

[6] https://qz.com/1093011/turkey-opens-its-largest-overseas-military-base-in-somalia-to-train-somali-soldiers/

[7] https://qz.com/1093011/turkey-opens-its-largest-overseas-military-base-in-somalia-to-train-somali-soldiers/

[8] https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/17/africas-700-billion-problem-waiting-to-happen-ethiopia-horn-of-africa/

[9] https://photius.com/rankings/2017 of June 30, 2017

[10] www.worldatlas.com/articles

[11] www.globalpfirepower.com

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Ap

Cairo – Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn said on Thursday at talks in Cairo they were opposed to any “conflict” over the sharing of Nile waters.

Sisi said that Desalegn’s visit was “a clear sign for our peoples and the entire world of our political will and determination to overcome all obstacles” between the two countries.

The Nile should serve as “a source of cohesion… and development, not of conflict” with Ethiopia, which is building a controversial dam that has raised Egyptian concerns over water supplies, he said.

“We agreed that we must make sure that this great river never becomes an object of competition, mistrust and conflict,” Desalegn told a joint news conference.

Sisi said Ethiopia was not aiming “to harm the interests of Egypt”, while reiterating Cairo’s call for the World Bank to serve as a neutral interlocutor between the two countries on technical issues related to the Nile.

Egypt relies almost totally on the Nile for irrigation and drinking water, and says it has “historic rights” to the river, guaranteed by treaties from 1929 and 1959.

Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam project on the Blue Nile, launched in 2012, is designed to feed a hydroelectric project to produce 6 000 megawatts of power, equal to six nuclear-powered plants.

The Blue and the White Nile tributaries converge in Sudan’s capital Khartoum and from there run north through Egypt to the Mediterranean.

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Lisa Schlein/VOA

GENEVA — The Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights says it welcomes Ethiopia’s decision this week to release 115 detainees, including several leading political figures. But it says the government should free all those imprisoned for holding opposing opinions.

One of those freed Wednesday was Merera Gudina, a senior leader of the Oromo Federalist Congress party. Gudina was arrested in late 2015 and charged with collusion with groups outlawed by the Addis Ababa government.

The Ethiopian government imposed a state of emergency in October 2016. That followed deadly anti-government protests by the Oromo and Amhara ethnic groups, who are pressing for greater freedom.

U.N. human rights spokeswoman Liz Throssell told VOA that about 20,000 people were arrested during the state of emergency, which was lifted in August 2017. She said a number of people subsequently were released, but that the number of people still in detention remained high.

“That is why we are welcoming the moves by the government to start releasing people and we are welcoming the comments that the government and prime minister have made with regard to setting up reviews for people who can be released, also setting up task forces to look into reported killings,” she said.

Discontinued cases

Throssell said her office also welcomed the government’s decision to discontinue cases against 400 other detainees. However, she said she was concerned that certain categories of prisoners would not be eligible for release. These include people suspected of committing murder, causing injury, destroying infrastructure and attempting to overthrow the constitutional order by force.

“We appreciate the seriousness of some of the offenses that may have been committed, but we urge the government to review these conditions to ensure that they are neither interpreted nor implemented too broadly, thereby resulting in people being arbitrarily or wrongfully detained,” she said.

The U.N. human rights office is calling on the Ethiopian government to bring its anti-terrorism legislation and laws regarding civil society and the media in line with international human rights law and principles.

Some information for this report came from Reuters.

All comments (2)

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By: Rana Mohamed

CAIRO – 20 January 2018: Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn has agreed to support the request of Ahmed el-Sewedy, head of the Egyptian-Ethiopian Business Council, to set up an Egyptian industrial zone in Ethiopia, head of the SME association AISME Alaa el-Sakty said Saturday.

Desalegn also agreed to facilitate the procedures for establishing an oil factory that was suggested by Sakty.

This came during Desalegn’s meeting with the Egyptian-Ethiopian Business Council and a number of Egyptian and Ethiopian businessmen, on the sidelines of his official visit to Cairo last week.

The meeting was also attended by Trade Minister Tarek Kabil and Sakty, head of the Association of Investors for Small and Medium enterprises (AISME).

Sakty said that the Ethiopian Prime Minister has praised the role played by Egyptian investors in supporting Ethiopia’s economy and vowed to remove the obstacles facing them in his country.

Sakty further said that AISME is supporting the Egyptian-Ethiopian Business Council in its efforts to boost economic relations between Egypt and Ethiopia.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Desalegn arrived in Cairo on Wednesday accompanied by a high-profile delegation to attend the sixth meeting of the joint Egyptian-Ethiopian Higher Committee.

The last meeting was held three years ago and tackled bilateral cooperation in several fields, including education, health, agriculture and fisheries. Trade volume between Egypt and Ethiopia increased by 54 percent in 2009 compared to 2007.

Egyptian Investments in Ethiopia are in the fields of agricultural and livestock production, industrial, tourism and real estate, according to Egypt’s State Information Service

There are currently 72 Egyptian investment projects in Ethiopia, with many others underway.

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ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia (AP) — Ethiopia’s Orthodox Christians have gathered to celebrate Timkat, or Epiphany, a major holiday marking the baptism of Jesus.

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BBC

At least five people have been killed in northern Ethiopia after security forces fired on a crowd at a religious festival who were reportedly shouting anti-government slogans.

Many more were injured in the incident in the town of Waldiya. Angry protesters have blocked roads and businesses are closed.

There have been nearly three years of opposition demonstrations in Ethiopia.

On Wednesday, hundreds of activists were released from jail.

The deaths happened during the second day of Epiphany celebrations commemorating the baptism of Jesus.

Dozens of people are reportedly receiving hospital treatment after the shooting.

Anti-government demonstrators in Ethiopia have been calling for political and economic reforms and an end to state corruption and human rights abuses.

Among the suspects released from detention by the government on Wednesday was prominent opposition leader Merera Gudina, who spent more than a year in detention.

At the beginning of January, Prime Minster Hailemariam Desalegn announced the government would close Maekelawi – a detention facility in the capital, Addis Ababa, allegedly used as a torture chamber.

The Ethiopian government imposed a state of emergency from October 2016 to August 2017 to end an unprecedented wave of protests against its 25-year rule.

More than 11,000 people were arrested, mostly from the Oromia and Amhara regions, where many people complain of political and economic marginalisation.

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By Mikael Arage

#WoldiaMassacre #AmharaMassare #ChristiansMassacre

The faithful were accompanying St Mikael’s Tabot, the symbol of the Arc of the Covenant, at the annual Timkat(epiphany) festival when TPLF forces started bullying and beating choirs , according to an eye witness, Yohaness.

Angered by the brutal interference of Tigrian security forces, the crowd — of over 100,000 people — would herald anti TPLF regime slogans : ‘Stop killing our young people’ . No sooner had the crowd started , in what eye witnesses say ‘ a peaceful and reactionary protest’ than TPLF forces would mercilessly use deadly forces , firing live ammunitions in to the crowd. So far, over 71 are suffering from heavy casualty ; Close to 20 are confirmed dead, among which are children, women and priests. Heavy gun shots are still heard in Woldia.

The situation is still under development , and that casualties could go up by any factor. A convoy of TPLF’s enforcements are heading to Woldia from Tigray, according to eye witness.

All most all top level leadership of the TPLF regime — including Sebehat Nega, Abay Woldu and Debretsion — have iterated about ‘the need and successful progress of devastating’ Ethiopia’s majority , Coptic Amhara , Orthodox christians , the culture and dominant presence of whom the TPLF regime iterated as the #1 threat for actualizing the separation of Ethiopia in to different countries, according to a number of records. Ethiopia’s dominant Coptic Orthodox Church — which by many standards has certain features of Judaism — had been a state religion in the country for 17 centuries, from 331 AD to 1968 AD.

#WoldiaMassacre#AmharaMassare

——————————–

The article was originally posted in the Amhara Network-የአማራ ትስስር platform by Mikael Arage https://www.facebook.com/AmharaNetwork/

Mikael Arage is a techprenuer, manager, engineer, strategist, citizen journalist, life long interdisciplinary student and human rights activist based in Helsinki, Finland. He regularly covers on political economy, technology and business development in Ethiopia.

ሚካኤል አራጌ በፊንላድ የሚኖሮ በቴክኖሎጂ ፣ ንግድስራ ፣ ግኝት ፣ ማህበራዊና ፖለቲካዊ ጉዳዮች ላይ የግልና ሙያዊ አስተያየት የሚሰጥ ሃገር አገልጋይ ምሁር ነው። ኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ ያለዉንም የሽብርተኛው ፣ ትህምክተኛውና ጠባቡ የህወሃት ስርዐት ላይም ጠንከርና ጠለቅ ያለ ተቃዉሞ ፣ አስተያየትና ትንተና በመስጠት ይታወቃል።

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የኢትዮጵያ ህዝብ ገዢው ፓርቲ ላይ ለምን ድንጋይ ይወረውራል? ዶክተር መረራ ጉዲና

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ESAT Breaking News Woldia Jan 21 2018

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Teddy Afro’s concert in Bahir Dar

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ADDIS ABABA, Jan. 21 (Xinhua) — The Ethiopian government on Sunday said 148 rebels have surrendered to Ethiopian security forces in recent weeks.

The surrenders are said to be members of the outlawed rebel group Gambella People’s Liberation Front (GPLM), said Gat Luack, President of Gambella regional state.

He said the rebels had previously been based in neighboring Eritrea, but decided to return to Ethiopia to participate in the country’s peace and development activities.

The Ethiopian government alleges the rebel group is supported by its archrival country Eritrea, while Eritrea accuses Ethiopia of supporting Eritrean rebel groups and running an international campaign to isolate the Red Sea nation.

Since Eritrea’s independence from Ethiopia following a referendum in 1993, the two nations have been locked in a hostile border dispute, which resulted in a bloody border war between 1998 and 2000 that killed an estimated 70,000 people from both sides.

Since then, the common border between Eritrea and Ethiopia has had an uneasy calm punctuated with periodic armed standoffs.

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By ELIAS MESERET | Associated Press

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia –  Ethiopia’s leader has rejected arbitration by the World Bank on a disagreement with Egypt over the hydroelectric dam that Ethiopia is building on the Nile River.

Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn on Saturday refused the suggestion made by Egypt in late December that the World Bank should be brought in to resolve the dispute with Ethiopia over the construction of the dam on the Nile River that Egypt says threatens its water security. Sudan is also part of the negotiations because the Nile flows through it on the way to Egypt.

“Ethiopia will not accept Egypt’s request to include the World Bank in the tripartite technical committee’s talks on the dam,” Desalegn told the state run Ethiopian News Agency after visiting Egypt on Friday where he met with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi. “There is an opportunity for the three countries to resolve possible disputes by themselves.”

Egypt’s suggestion came amid a 10-month impasse over technical negotiations for the dam, which will be Africa’s biggest hydro-electric plant. Egyptian officials have called the World Bank “neutral and decisive” and said the organization could facilitate negotiations “devoid of political interpretation and manipulation.”

But the Ethiopian leader said that “seeking professional support is one thing; transferring it to an institution is another thing. So we told them (Egypt) that this is not acceptable with our side.” Desalegn said that Egyptians are not getting accurate information about the source of Nile waters and how Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam will operate.

The $5 billion dam is about 63 percent complete. When finished it will generate about 6,400 megawatts, more than doubling Ethiopia’s current production of 4,000 megawatts. The dam will also help to spare Ethiopia from drought and famine.

Ethiopia maintains that the dam’s construction will not reduce Egypt’s share of the river’s water. It insists the dam is needed for development, pointing out that 60 million of its citizens don’t have access to electricity.

But Egypt fears that if the reservoir behind the dam is filled quickly and if too much of the Nile waters are retained each year, the reduction of the river’s flow would have negative effects on Egypt’s agriculture.

Desalegn tried to reassure Egyptian during his visit to the country. “The people of Ethiopia did not nor will ever subject Egyptians to danger,” said Desalegn, in Cairo Saturday on his first visit to Egypt as prime minister. “We will not hurt your country in any way and will work closely together to secure the life of the people of the Nile basin and take them out of the cycle of poverty.”

While Ethiopia has said the dam is a “matter of life or death” for its people, Egypt has said water is a “matter of life or death” for its people.

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Journalist Eskinder Nega: Freedom of Expression

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Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry has telephoned Ethiopian counterpart Workneh Gebeyehu to express Cairo’s concerns over reports that Addis Ababa rejects Egypt’s proposal to involve the World Bank in the stalled technical negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Speaking to the Egyptian ONTV talk-show Everyday on Sunday evening, Egyptian foreign ministry spokesperson Ahmed Abu Zeid said Shoukry called Gebeyehu to check the veracity of a report by the official Ethiopian news agency in which Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn was quoted as saying the World Bank should not play the role of arbiter in GERD negotiations.

Shoukry also enquired about the timing of Desalegn’s alleged statements ahead of agreed upon tripartite talks between between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia.

The Ethiopian FM told Shoukry that Desalegn’s statements “were taken out of context”, Abu Zeid said.

On Friday, a day after his return from an official visit to Egypt where he held talks with Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi on the dam dispute, Desalegn was quoted by the Ethiopian news agency as saying that Ethiopia rejects Egypt’s proposal to allow the World Bank to take part in the technical talks over the impact of the GERD on the Nile water share of downstream countries.

“Seeking professional support is one thing. Transferring [arbitration] to an institution is another thing. So we told them that this is not acceptable to our side,” Desalegn said according to the agency.

“It is possible to reach agreement through cooperation and with the spirit of trust,” the Ethiopian PM added.

Ethiopia’s PM Desalegn had told Egypt’s El-Sisi during their meeting in Cairo on Thursday that Addis Ababa understands “the necessity of overcoming any current obstacles in ongoing negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.”

President El-Sisi explained to the Ethiopian PM that Egypt’s recent proposal to include the World Bank as a neutral mediator in GERD negotiations was aimed at overcoming the delays in technical negotiations and to reassure all involved countries.

The Ethiopian PM said the Egyptian proposal “would be discussed on the level of the tripartite committee during their upcoming meeting.”

“We stress the necessity of further studying the Egyptian proposal and carrying on cooperation in good faith and trust among our countries. I am confident that we will overcome these problems soon,” Desalegn added in Cairo.

In December, Egypt proposed that the World Bank be allowed to help settle the dispute between the two countries over the hydroelectric dam that Addis Ababa is building and which Egypt fears will affect its share of Nile water.

For the past several months, talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over the dam and technical studies on its environmental impact have been deadlocked.

Abu Zeid told Everyday that Egypt chose the World Bank to act as arbiter because of its experience in such matters and because it is neutral.

“The technical talks [over the dam] cannot be subject to political interpretations. Those who reject the Egyptian proposal should present logical reasons, because the situation does not need any more procrastination,” Abu Zeid said.

“Egypt will wait till it receives a clear official response from Ethiopia and Sudan to its proposal at the trilateral meeting then decide on the course of action we will take,” the spokesperson said.

The post Egypt is concerned over reports Addis Ababa rejects role for World Bank in stalled dam talks, Shoukry tells Ethiopian FM appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News|Breaking News: Your right to know!.

ESAT Woldia Latest News Amsterdam January 22, 2018

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By Alemayehu G. Mariam

Author’s Note: This is the second installment in a three-part series on prospects for “mediation”, “reconciliation” and “negotiation” with the ruling Thugtatorship of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (T-TPLF).

In Part I, I discussed why the current discussion on “mediation”, “reconciliation” and “negotiation” with the T-TPLF is of the utmost importance to me personally, why it makes me jittery and extremely concerned and at the same time amuses me.

In Part II here, I aim to examine why it is impossible to engage in “mediation”, “reconciliation” and “negotiation” with the T-TPLF.

In Part III, I aim to sketch out my views on a path that could make possible “mediation”, “reconciliation” and “negotiation” with the T-TPLF and avert the creeping civil war from engulfing the country.

The general aim of the series is to raise fundamental questions about the current fashionable talk about+ “reconciliation” within the framework of a T-TPLF-centered political dialogue and to urge caution and to help inform those who, in good faith, seek to promote a “reconciliation process” as a way out of current dire situation in Ethiopia.

I dedicate the series to all of Ethiopia’s youth that have made the ultimate sacrifice to free their country from minority ethnic apartheid rule and establish a democratic society based on the rule of law.

Ethiopia’s youth (Cheetahs) united can never be defeated!

Ethiopiawinet TODAY, Ethiopiawinet TOMORROW, Ethiopiawinet FOREVER!

The Beast strikes again

As talks of “reconciliation”, “national consensus building” and “mediation” begin to draw public interest, the T-TPLF launched another one of its campaigns of death and destruction against unarmed innocent Ethiopian citizens.

On January 20, 2018, the T-TPLF massacred and injured dozens of innocent Ethiopians in Woldia City, northern Ethiopia, at the Epiphany celebrations commemorating the baptism of Jesus. According to a paper allied with the T-TPLF, “youth were heard singing and dancing with music that have politically charged messages. The members of the security force warned them to stop the provocation, but they refused to stop resulting in the fatal clash between the two.” Eyewitnesses  said, T-TPLF’s Agazi (“death squads”) soldiers sprayed machine gun bullets on the crowd just like the Irreecha Massacres in October 2016.

Only the BEAST, the Prince of Darkness himself, will unleash such wanton death and destruction against innocent unarmed citizens on the holy day of the Baptism of Jesus Christ and Ireecha Waaqa (God) Thanksgiving Day!

Is it possible to reconcile with the Beast that massacred and committed mayhem on dozens of innocent Ethiopians in Woldia?

Is possible to reconcile with the Beast that massacred over 1,000 innocent Ethiopians at the Irreecha celebrations in October 2016?

Is it possible to reconcile with the Beast that has made Ethiopia the Killing Fields of Africa?

Now, the world knows how the T-TPLF does reconciliation negotiations. The T-TPLF will negotiate with unarmed citizens who sing songs of freedom with the rattle of AK-47s and machine guns!

Video of Woldia City T-TPLF Massacre victims’ funeral ceremony HERE. In their lamentations, they sing, “Our youth are dead, but you will never kill Ethiopia. You will never divide us. We are one.”

Dr. Merara Gudina’s call for national reconciliation and the impossibility of engaging in reconciliation dialogue with the T-TPLF wounded beast

It takes two to tango and a dance troupe to put on a performance. Is it possible to dance with a one-legged cornered dying wounded beast?

Following his release from prison, Dr. Merara Gudina, the leader of the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), in an interview on Voice of America – Amharic, chided the ruling T-TPLF in Ethiopia for its on-again, off-again half-assed reconciliation gestures:

I want to issue a call for national reconciliation. National reconciliation means national reconciliation.  Therefore, to release a certain number [of political prisoners] and to keep a certain number [in prison] shows the regime is doing [national reconciliation] in a half-hearted way. It would be good [for the regime] to seriously undertake efforts to lead the country on the path to reconciliation. I have always called for the government and the opposition to meet half way and help the people. That is very, very necessary. I have seen it in more than one generation, even during the imperial government, over the past 50 years. Our people have been severely damaged in political crises. The people have been bled, and damaged beyond any expectation. It is necessary to start the [reconciliation] process to close this chapter of suffering. It would be good to start a new era as the former king Haile Selassie did after the end of the Italian War. This regime should use [national reconciliation] as the beginning of a new era and it will benefit them.

Dr. Merara’s was arrested by the T-TPLF after he returned from a briefing with Members of the European Union in December 2016. He was imprisoned and was awaiting trial in T-TPLF monkey court on a variety of trumped up charges. (For the Amharic version of the bogus charges, click HERE.)

Dr. Merara’s arrest, detention and “trial” has ben condemned and criticized by various international human rights organizations and institutions.

In May 2017, the European Parliament passed a resolution  calling for Dr. Merara’s release and dismissal of charges.

Human Rights Watch addressed a complaint to the Permanent Representatives of Members and Observer States of the UN Human Rights Council calling for his release and release of all political prisoners.

Amnesty International condemned Dr. Merara’s arrest “an outrageous assault on the right to freedom of expression and should sound alarm bells for anyone with an interest in ending the deadly protests that have rocked Ethiopia over the past year.”

Members of the U.S. Congress have criticized Dr. Merara’s arbitrary detention and introduced legislation to address human rights violations in Ethiopia.

Dr. Merera has been arbitrarily imprisoned for speaking his mind by the previous military Derg regime serving out a seven-year term.

Despite the ludicrous charges of terrorism, Dr. Merara has earned the universal respect and admiration of Ethiopians for “his commitment to academic excellence, peaceful resistance, Ethiopia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty as well his unbridled commitment in defense of the rights and freedoms of all of the Ethiopian people.”

Beyond his personal integrity and commitment to peaceful change, Dr. Merara is a highly respected and well-established political scientist and scholar. His impressive list of publications demonstrate that he has a deep understanding of Ethiopian politics and society in addition to his unflagging and unrelenting activism for equality, justice and human rights in Ethiopia.

In a 1994 article, Dr. Merara foresaw the ominous signs of T-TPLF tyrannical rule in the destruction of Ethiopian national institutions. He wrote that because of the “drastic measures” taken by the TPLF regime “Ethiopia is nowehre near the promised goal – durable peace, democratic governance and positive development. Still it is the drums for war, not the peaceful reconstruction of the country, that invoke the emotions of the people in the corridors of power as well as some opposition groups.”

In a 2007 article, Dr. Merara argued that the “experiment in ethnic federalism” in Ethiopia has largely failed “because of the hegemonic aspiration of the ruling elite, and the tensions in the attempt to implement both collective rights and individual rights of citizens”.

In another historical analysis, Dr. Merara documented “the result of the accumulated five grand failures of the Ethiopian elite in a century, the perennial quest for peace, democracy and development [which] continue to be as elusive as ever.”  In his conclusion, he argued, “two factors are critical to move forward out of the present political impasse: the abandoning of the hegemonic aspiration and the zero – sum game politics thereof on the part of the ruling elite and leaving behind the fixation on history as well as the extravaganza of some elites on the right to secession in a more globalised world of the 21st century. Without national consensus on the modality of democratic governance and the ‘political rules of the game’ thereof, successful democratization is more of an illusion at best and hypocrisy at worst.”

In his 2009 article (p. 154) on electoral politics and the future of Ethiopian democracy, Dr. Merara identified as “Problem 1: Democratisation without national consensus.” He argued, “Following its impressive military victory the EPRDF leaders quickly moved to the ‘remaking’ of Ethiopia without creating a national consensus over the basics of state transformation, a badly needed action for countries like Ethiopia where there are contradictory perspectives regarding the interpretation of the past, the understanding of the present and the vision concerning the future.”

It is important to heed Dr. Merara’s call for national reconciliation and peaceful transition to democratic rule because he has a deep understanding of the complexities of Ethiopia politics and society.

Others have made similar calls for reconciliation in one form or another.

In 2006, then Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Donald Yamamoto testifying, before Congress said, “On numerous occasions, the Assistant Secretary sent me to Addis Ababa to work with the Ethiopian Government and opposition groups in support of U.S. Embassy efforts to encourage a reconciliation of differences between the opposition and the ruling parties, and to discuss ways to improve the political process with the Ethiopian government. We encouraged the opposition parties to take their seats in the Ethiopian Parliament and use their positions as parliamentarians to press for continued political reform and a greater voice for the opposition.” But the T-TPLF rejected it and jailed the opposition leaders.

In September 2009, the Crises Group in its seminal study on “Ethnic Federalism and Its Discontents” observed, “the EPRDF’s ethnic policy has empowered some groups but has not been accompanied by dialogue and reconciliation.”

In 2013, some Ethiopian human rights activists told the U.S. Congress (p.84), “Reconciliation can be done. The people in Ethiopia there are some moderates within the government.”

On December 22, 2017, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State and ambassador Herman Cohen said, called for the start of  a “reconciliation process” through broad public participation which includes “women, youth, the press” and other marginalized groups.

On January 3, 2018, Hailemariam Desalegn, the puppet prime minister (PPM) of the T-TPLF  said he “will release politicians jailed on charges including involvement in terrorism” to “foster national consensus”. He just could not bring himself to use the word “consensus” because he believes the word signifies weakness and surrender.

In January 2018, the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, commended Desalegn’s action as “important and farsighted” and vital for “fostering national consensus and widening democratic space.”

Others have urged the T-TPLF to “implement a process of national reconciliation based on the principles of inclusivity and genuine political dialogue.”

I respect the views and aspirations of Dr. Merara, the foreign diplomats and others who have called for national reconciliation in Ethiopia through “mediation”, “negotiation” or other dispute resolution mechanism with the T-TPLF.

In as much as I respect their views, I respectfully disagree with those who, in good faith and with good intentions, have called for and urged national reconciliation with the T-TPLF.

I believe it is impossible to have reconciliation or reconciliation dialogue with the T-TPLF. Here are my reasons:

Reconciliation is, first and foremost, a state of mind.

Is the T-TPLF capable of accepting Dr. Merara’s challenge of initiating a genuine national dialogue and reconciliation process?

Is it possible to reconcile with those who wallow in “hegemonic aspiration” and know how to play only “zero -sum game politics”, as Dr. Merara observed in one of his articles?

True, “Hope springs eternal in the human breast.” There may be cause for optimism about national reconciliation in Ethiopia, but not with the T-TPLF.

Reconciliation is first and foremost a state of mind.

Parties to a reconciliation dialogue must minimally accept the position that they (may) have done or failed to do something that has caused harm to the other party. The state of mind of the T-TPLF bosses is that they have done nothing wrong to anyone and see no reason to reconcile. They are instinctively averse to even using the word. I recall a statement made by the late T-TPLF thugmaster Meles Zenawi that he finds no reason for Irq (reconciliation) since he has not “fought” with anyone. In the T-TPLF view, reconciliation and negotiation are for wimps, wussys and cowards. For the T-TPLF macho men, they don’t talk.  They let their AK-47s do the talking to them.

Reconciliation requires trust, giving one’s opponents the benefit of reasonable doubt. The T-TPLF bosses are incapable of trusting anyone or anything. They live trapped in a mental state of terminal paranoia. They trust no one, including themselves. They stay up all night scheming to destroy not only their enemies but also each other. No trust among cannibals.

Reconciliation requires courage and the strength of character to say, “I (We are) am sorry” and ask forgiveness for intentional and unintentional wrongs. The T-TPLF has never apologized for any of its long list of crimes against humanity. Just a simple personal example. Last October when the T-TPLF publicly stated that they “doubt my Ethiopian-ness” because of “some of my writings, I demanded a shred of evidence of my written work, now approaching one thousand commentaries, over the past 12 years which casts doubt on my Ethiopian-ness or an apology. They produced not an iota of evidence, a word, a phrase or a sentence to back up their slanderous allegations. Of course, I did not expect an apology. I know that is not a virtue taught and learned in the bush nor commonly practiced in the society of thugs and in the land of Thugistan.

But I proved to them I am a proud Ethiopian.

Thugs who are incapable of apologizing to an individual they outrageously slandered are incapable of asking forgiveness from a nation they have victimized for over a quarter of a century.

There can be no reconciliation with those whose core philosophy is “blame the victim”. Just yesterday, the T-TPLF officially blamed the dozens of unarmed innocent citizens in Woldia City for provoking the police and security forces into killing them by singing songs that offended them.

Reconciliation requires atonement, making amends for the wrongs one has committed. The self-righteous and hubristic T-TPLF bosses demand atonement from their victims. A few days ago, T-TPLF con man Getachew Reda demanded the Ethiopian people make reparations to the Tigrean people “for their sacrifices”.

Reconciliation requires integrity. That means strong moral principles and uprightness. It means honesty, sincerity, decency and a sense of fairness. The T-TPLF bosses have as much integrity as the proverbial used car salesmen.

Reconciliation requires good faith and good will, an open heart and an open mind. The T-TPLF bosses are trapped in a state of mind in which they see everyone, including each other, as enemies. They have never shed their Hobbsean bush mentality where the law of the jungle/bush rules and life is nasty, brutish and short. They left the bush 27 years ago, but the bush never left them. It is true you can take the thug out of the bush, but you can never take the bush out of the thug.

Reconciliation requires tolerance and understanding. The T-TPLF bosses have an overinflated sense of self. They believe they are the only ones with courage, bravery, valor and guts. They believe all other Ethiopians are cowards, gutless and fainthearted. They believe other Ethiopians are such cowards they will never pay the ultimate price for their freedom, as they did to create the Republic of Tigray, and would rather live in slavery in an ethnic apartheid system than a free Ethiopia.

But who is the real coward? Those who set up a system of 1 spy for 5 households? Those who are so scared they tremble going out in the streets? Those who massacre unarmed citizens who sing songs of freedom?

I have it on T-TPLF authority that Meles Zenawi ordered the post-2005 election massacres as shock and awe against the Ethiopian population. It was a calculated and deliberate act intended to send a message to the Ethiopian population that the T-TPLF is capable of extreme violence to suppress its opponents. But that was then, not now.

The T-TPLF bosses do not understand Gandhi’s maxim that “Strength does not come from physical capacity. It comes from an indomitable will.” They are now witnessing the indomitable will of Ethiopia’s young people fighting them in every hamlet, town and city. The T-TPLF bosses are learning the hard lesson that Ethiopia’s young people are prepared to pay the ultimate sacrifice for their freedom and use the most powerful weapons of nonviolence and Ethiopiawinet to defeat the wounded beast with feet of clay.

Reconciliation requires walking a mile (kilometer) in the other person’s shoes. The T-TPLF bosses know only “my way or the highway”.

Reconciliation requires an irrevocable commitment to peaceful resolution of disputes. The T-TPLF warlords are committed only to war, death and destruction.

Reconciliation requires acceptance that the other side could be right, and one can be wrong. Just the other day, the T-TPLF told opposition elements with whom it was “negotiating” that its cut and paste antiterrorism law was perfect, fully complied with international law and required no change.

Reconciliation requires a fundamental commitment to working together and sharing power to serve the greater good. The T-TPLF public position has always been, “We will not give up power we have won with the bullet to those who have won elections at the ballot.”

Reconciliation requires a state of mind filled with hope and optimism. The minds of the T-TPLF bosses are filled with despair and pessimism.  For years, the T-TPLF bosses have been crying wolf about a civil war to scare the people into supporting them. Today, the wolf they fed and nurtured sits at their doorway baring his teeth.

Reconciliation requires a commitment to earnestly honor promises made and keep one’s word. The T-TPLF bosses speak with the forked tongue of snakes.

Reconciliation requires a commitment to justice. The T-TPLF bosses are committed to JUST-US.

Reconciliation requires a commitment to truth before reconciliation. Truth is the one thing the T-TPLF bosses fear the most. They do not understand the truth shall make them free and all Ethiopian free. So in Ethiopia today, truth swings from the scaffold and wrong sits on the throne.

Reconciliation without truth-seeking and -finding is impossible

Reconciliation without truth is impossible. As Bishop Desmond Tutu said, “reconciliation is based on an acknowledgement of what was done wrong, and therefore on the disclosure of the truth. You cannot forgive what you do not know.”

The T-TPLF is fatally allergic to truth. As I have often said, the “LF” in TPLF stands for Lie Factory. After nearly a decade and half of denying they do not hold political prisoners, the T-TPLF last week finally acknowledged holding “political prisoners”. The T-TPLF has been lying about “double-digit economic growth” for the past decade. The T-TPLF has been lying about elections claiming to have won 100 percent of the seats in its rubber stamp parliament.

The T-TPLF bosses are pathological liars, born liars. They cannot handle the truth.

The truth about their long record of crimes against humanity, extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests and detentions, torture and abuse practices in their prisons, enforced disappearances, arbitrary displacement of civilian populations and turnover of ancestral lands to fly-by-night operators, expropriation of citizens’ lands, abuse of political power, subversion of the judicial process for political ends and so many other things.

The TPLF was born in lies, lived in lies and will find its final resting place in the graveyard of lies.

But the T-TPLF bosses can save themselves if they heed the maxim and act fast. “The truth shall make you free”. No doubt, the truth shall send others to jail. But that is the way of truth.

Prisoners cannot negotiate or reconcile with their prison wardens about their freedom

In my July 2017 commentary, I made it crystal clear: “Political prisoners are the 800-pound gorillas in the negotiating room. Any reconciliation negotiations that does not start with the acknowledgment and release of the tens of thousands of political prisoners is just window dressing. Better yet, it’s horse_ _ _t!”

In 1985, Nelson Mandela issued a statement from his prison cell explaining why he cannot negotiate with the minority white apartheid regime: “I cannot and will not give any undertaking at a time when I and you, the people, are not free. Only free men can negotiate; prisoners cannot enter into contracts….”

The T-TPLF today has created an open-air prison in Ethiopia which holds 100 million people.

The T-TPLF must understand, before it is too, too late for its own good, that it must unconditionally release all, all political prisoners in the country. A few here and a few there will not suffice. They should also heed the wisdom, “Judge and ye shall be judged.” For the T-TPLF Judgement Day is at hand!

For the opposition to negotiate or discuss reconciliation without the release of all political prisoners is itself a crime against humanity. It is aiding and abetting those who perpetrate crimes against humanity and will be held accountable as accomplices.

Reconciliation means give and take, win-win, NOT zero-sum game in which the T-TPLF wins everything by 99.6% or 100%

As I argued in my 2009 commentary, “The Raw Machismo of Dictatorship”, for the T-TPLF negotiation means playing a “zero-sum game”. They win all the time, everybody else loses every time. More bluntly, the T-TPLF negotiating strategy is, might makes right. Alternatively, it is “My way or the highway… or jail!” No more questions.

The T-TPLF will negotiate in earnest only and only if two conditions are met: 1) They will remain the only dominant political and economic force in the country. 2) They are so concerned and fearful about losing political power that they want to use negotiations to buy time to re-establish their political and economic supremacy.

There is a third condition. As the creeping civil war creeps closer and Ethiopia’s youth sing Tom Petty’s tune, “I (We) won’t back down”, the T-TPLF will beg for reconciliation. “Hey, T-TPLF, you can stand us up at the gates of hell, but we won’t back down. We won’t let you push us around. There is no easy way out. We will stand our ground.”

The fact of the matter is that the T-TPLF has one and only one overriding interest in any reconciliation negotiations: Remain in power in much the same way as they are now. For one more day. One more week. One more month. One more year. One more decade…

The T-TPLF plays only zero-sum games. For them, everything is negotiable except one. There can be no negotiation about their total and complete control of the political and economic process in the country. Period!

That is nothing new. The T-TPLF has perfected the zero-sum game in Ethiopia over the past 26 years.

In 2008, in “elections for regional parliaments, the T-TPLF won 1,903 of 1,904 seats. They won all but four of 3.4 million contested seats.

In May 2010, the T-TPLF “won” all the seats in “parliament” by 99.6 percent.

In May 2015, the T-TPLF “won” 100% of the seats in “parliament”.

Such total and complete zero-sum electoral “victory” occurred in a country where there are 79 registered opposition political parties.

Such total and complete electoral “victory” occurred in a country where the real opposition party leaders are arrested on trumped up  terrorism charges and languish in official and secret T-TPLF prisons without due process of law for years.

In August 2007, Meles Zenawi “pardoned” 38 opposition political leaders to “give impetus to political negotiations in Ethiopia after more than two years’ crisis and stalemate.” In October of that year,  “in spite of continuing negotiations between the government and the opposition , the political environment continued to deteriorate.” In that negotiation, the T-TPLF had a double zero-sum game “win”. It validated the 38 railroaded leaders were criminals, and forced the leaders to “admit” crimes they never committed and “pardoning” them.

In 2010, the T-TPLF engaged donors in “negotiations” to allow them to send election observers. The European Union sent observers and Zenawi called their final report “useless trash that deserves to be thrown in the garbage”.  They “won” that “election” by 99.6 percent.

Today, T-TPLF head honcho Debretsion says, “Ethnic federalism is equality. T-TPLF supremacy is nothing but a conspiracy. To say Tigreans are supreme (everywhere), that is not the reality. That is a zero. Zero.”

True. It is a zero. It’s all a zero-sum game for the T-TPLF.

Reconciliation is not a zero-sum game!

Reconciliation is not a game. But today it is the only game left for the T-TPLF to play before GAME OVER!

It is impossible to negotiate and reconcile with a group whose religion is hate, claims a birthright to ethnic supremacy and believes in subjugation of other ethnic groups it considers subhuman

The T-TPLF regime is founded on an ideology of hate and ethnic supremacy.

Meles Zenawi believed his T-TPLF has a birthright to rule Ethiopia perpetually because he believed they possess infinitely superior capacities for valor and bravery in the field of battle and intellect. Only they know the secrets for civil administration, for economic planning, for entrepreneurship, for social organization, and for advancing civilization.

In 2009, U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia Donald Yamamoto perceptively observed the TPLF leaders “believe only they can know what is best for Ethiopia.” Because they believe they are the best.

The T-TPLF bosses truly believe they are the Ubermenschen (“supermen”) who are destined to rule over a primitive collection of Untermenschen (subhuman) “nations, nationalities and peoples”.

The T-TPLF leaders have said time and again that they will not give up power they won with full metal jacket bullets in the bush to paper ballots at elections.

The T-TPLF bosses believe all other ethnic groups, particularly Amharas and Oromos, are their mortal enemies. They have unbridled hatred for Amharas.

Meles and his T-TPLF today are obsessed by their ethnic theory that Amharas are the cause of all the troubles in Ethiopia. Their solution is the extermination of the Amhara people, not reconciliation with them.

The TPLF Manifesto, which has never been repudiated by the TPLF, declares, “Amhara are the enemy of the Tigray people. Amhara are not only enemies but also double enemies. Therefore, we must crush Amhara. We have to destroy them. Unless Amhara are destroyed, beaten down, cleansed from the land, Tigray cannot live in freedom. For the government we intend to create, Amhara will be the main obstacle.” That is the Mind of the T-TPLF!

The T-TPLF bosses have deep contempt for Oromos. They underestimate the intelligence of the Oromo people. They believe Oromos can be easily duped and misled. They believe Oromos can be easily manipulated and distracted. That is why the T-TPLF offered to rename the capital Finfine in exchange for confiscating the lands of struggling Oromo farmers on the outskirts of the capital. They thought they could hoodwink Oromos with cotton candy but the brave and heroic Oromo people told the T-TPLF to take its empty words and shove it.

I recently heard a T-TPLF supporter in one of the online chatrooms say words to the effect, “We raised Lemma Megerssa as our own and gave him everything. It is sad when a dog you have raised bites your hand.” That is what the T-TPLF thinks of the Oromo people.

The children of the T-TPLF bosses call Amharas “retards” and Oromos “criminals” and “terrorists”.

Is it possible to reconcile with those who believe their opposition are “dogs”, “retards” and subhuman?

It is not possible to reconcile with those who believe reconciliation and negotiation are just games, stalling games and delaying tactics

For the T-TPLF, reconciliation and negotiations are gimmicks to buy time, prolong their rule and cling to power. They use negotiations as stalling and delaying tactics.

I have previously discussed the T-TPLF bosses’ negotiation strategy, which I believe they will use in any future “reconciliation” discussion and mediation.

1) Negotiate from a position of strength and you will have no reason to negotiate and you are guaranteed victory every time.  The T-TPLF controls and owns everything: the political process, the economy, the civil service and the military. The opposition inside the country have nothing, literally nothing. How can people who have nothing negotiate with people who have everything? How can antelopes negotiate with hyenas about the dinner menu?

2) Negotiations are essentially elaborate public relations games. That means window dressing negotiations and going through the motions of negotiations. The T-TPLF’s cardinal negotiation strategy and rule is: Negotiate without negotiating and bargain without bargaining.  In other words, pretend to be negotiating and bargaining with the opposition, but in the end, make suckers out of them.

3) Avoid real negotiations at all costs, but engage in make-believe negotiations. Negotiation is a game of attrition and a process of wearing down the opponent to the point where s/he walks away giving you an opportunity to lay blame on them. The reason for this is simple. Negotiations are a slippery slope. Any concessions to the opposition will only open the floodgates to other concessions. If the T-TPLF negotiates and makes any concessions, even small ones, it will only encourage the “opposition” to demand more. If the T-TPLF gives in to one of the “13 agenda items”, the opposition will press for demand number two and three and so on. If you release a few political prisoners (which you don’t have), they will ask for the release of all political prisoners (you don’t have). Where will it stop? It is all or nothing. Therefore, the T-TPLF will NEVER engage in real negotiations, only make-believe ones.

4) Negotiations should be used to bait and trap the opposition. The T-TPLF’s history of negotiations shows that it likes to use a prolonged process of enticing, delaying and stringing along the opposition until the moment the trap is sprung on them. For the T-TPLF negotiating with the “opposition” is like someone baiting a mousetrap with cheese to catch mice. The T-TPLF will put out all sorts of cheesy promises, commitments, assurances, etc., to attract the opposition to the “reconciliation negotiating table” only to slam shut the trap on them in the end.

5) In negotiations, just as in ordinary politics, use ethnic politics, sectarianism, regionalism, etc. to divide and conquer the “opposition” negotiators. Consequently, the T-TPLF will throw crumbs to the various opposition leaders just to watch them fight and tear each other up. It is like the master throwing a bone to a bunch of hungry dogs. The dogs will kill each other to get a piece of the bone. That is how the T-TPLF sees the “opposition” negotiating with it. Indeed, the T-TPLF sees its opposition as a bunch of “do-eat-dogs”.

6) Negotiations are weapons of mass public distraction and confusion. By talking “negotiations”, the T-TPLF hopes to create an atmosphere of hope and optimism of a negotiated settlement of disputes and reconciliation. The T-TPLF hopes it can hoodwink the people into believing that this time it is for real. The T-TPLF will make the hard choices and make things right. That was exactly the promise the hyenas made to the antelopes before inviting them to dinner in their den.

7) Negotiations are for suckers (fools). I have said it for years that the T-TPLF slicksters believe they can outsmart, outmaneuver, out-trick and out-finesse their opposition any day of the week. The T-TPLF bosses think of the “opposition leaders” as a bunch of cowards, fools and idiots. Susan Rice captured the essential attitude of the T-TPLF leaders in her eulogy of Meles in 2012 when she said Meles “liked to call” his opposition “fools, or “idiots”. The T-TPLF guys believe that they are negotiating with fools and idiots when they sit down with the opposition for their make-believe negotiations.

8) Negotiation is a competitive blood sport. For the T-TPLF, that means take the easy way first to bring pressure on the opposition to negotiate a deal.  If the “opposition” wants to play hardball, offer them rewards, money, jobs, business opportunities. If that does not work, threaten or slam them in jail for violating the “anti-terrorism law”.

9) The purpose of negotiation is to cut down your opponent, not to cut a deal. That is the essence of the T-TPLF’s zero-sum game. Meles Zenawi once said of the opposition, “We will crush them with our full force; they will all vegetate like Birtukan (Midekssa) in jail forever.” The T-TPLF will crush anyone who is foolish enough to sit down and negotiate with them.

10) In negotiations, use them and lose them. The T-TPLF will use and lose the “opposition” negotiators as soon as it feels the “opposition” has served their purposes and more comfortable in their grip on power.

Reconciliation or Countdown to Showdown

As I explained in my February 2016 commentary, the T-TPLF is fast approaching its day of reckoning, Judgement Day. What happens to the T-TPLF is in T-TPLF’s hands. It can choose the path of reconciliation and peaceful change or it can watch the creeping civil war consume it bit by bit.

Regardless, the T-TPLF Beast will reap what it sowed. Soon, “They will be like the morning mist, like the early dew that disappears, like chaff swirling from a threshing floor, like smoke escaping through a window”. “Their swords will pierce their own hearts, and their bows will be broken.” “There will be no future for the wicked.” They will be “carried in the wind so that no trace of them is found”. Those who have troubled the Ethiopia House “shall inherit the wind.”

It is so written!

LONG LIVE ETHIOPIAWINET!

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A new song to commemorate Ethiopian refugees who died en route for better Life

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ESAT News (January 23, 2018)

TPLF security forces shot and killed three people in Alem Tena, East Shewa today while holding a sit in protest at a flagpole to mourn the death of protesters in Woldia and Moyale in the weekend.

The deceased had lowered the flag to a half-mast to mourn the death of protesters this weekend. Security forces put the flag back to full-mast at which point the protesters held a sit in protest. According to information obtained from Oromo activists, the forces shot and killed the three people execution style.

The killing has sparked angry protests by residents in Meki and other nearby towns.

The local UN office in Ethiopia also said in an alert to its staff that violent protests have been reported in Alem Tena. The office also said the main highway between Mojo and Awassa has been blocked by security forces.

Protests were also held in Mendi, Wollega at a burial of a young man shot and killed yesterday by security forces.

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By: Asress Mulugeta

The last three years (2015, 2016 and 2017) have been the horror years for Ethiopians especially for Amhara and Oromo people. As recent days killing horror in Woldia showed us, the year 2018 is going to be worse. The unrest in Ethiopia that started in November 2015 in the Oromia and in July 2016 in Amhara regions still continues unabatedly by fuelling further ethnic clashes in different parts of the country.  In the year 2015, Ethiopia has been gripped with ethnic violence and chaos as thousands of Oromo demonstrators took to the streets in protest against government land grab that displace around 200,000 people. The fascistic action of the Ethiopian government turned a peaceful protest into a violent one in which hundreds of people were killed in a bloody crackdown by heavily armed security forces from November 2015 till December 2015.

In the year 2016, not only the Oromo region but also the Amhara region has been gripped with ethnic violence and chaos. In July 2016, the Anti-terrorism task force detained members of the Wolqayt Amhara Identity Committee (WAIC), a legally registered organisation. Soon after, protests erupted in many areas of the Amhara Region. One of the biggest demonstrations took place was on 1 August 2016 in Gondar city. Protesters demanded the release of the WAIC members, social and political reforms including an end to human rights abuses. The government responded by mercilessly killing and arresting protesters. In just three months from July 2016 till October 2016 at least 500 people are estimated to have been killed in Bahir Dar and Godar areas. Further protests followed in the Amhara region in which major protests took place in 6 of the 11 Amhara region zones throughout the year 2016.

2016 was also the grim year not only tested the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, EPRDF’s, quarter-century stranglehold over the country but also the limits of human perseverance against determined state action. Any, of Oromia’s 560 towns escaped the growing anger and revolt of ordinary citizens against the central state. In fact, both the protests and the official brutality were unprecedented, in which the security forces killed more than 1,000 people in Oromia alone in 2016. The year’s biggest tragedy took place on October 2, 2016 when 700 Oromo people lost their lives died in the ensuing stampede at the Irrecha Festival due to the reckless action of the security forces. On October 8, 2016 the government declared a state of emergency which lasted on August 2017. During the  state of emergency, the government killing squad members were deployed in all villages of the Amhara and Oromia Regional state where they committed killings, kidnappings and arrests of civilians while fighting against the Amhara and Oromo nationalists.

The year 2017 was worse nightmare for Ethiopians especially for the Oromo people. In a scheme concocted by the minority lead government, a conflict along areas shared by the Oromo and Somali communities in Eastern Ethiopia resulted in the death of hundreds of people and the displacement of at least 670,000 innocent Oromo people. In the year 2017, Ethnic tensions and violence in Ethiopia has been also crippling university education. Universities that are located in Oromia and Tigray regions such as Metu University, Alemaya University, Ambo University, Adigrat University, Axum University and Mekele University have been the most affected by ethnic unrest. More than 50 students have been killed due to ethnic clashes that occurred from the above mentioned universities by the end of 2017. Thousands of Amhara students left Metu University and many Oromo students left Jijiga University fearing of their safety. In December 2017, the government orchestrated clashes between different ethnic groups in Ethiopia‘s Oromia region have killed at least 61 people.

Now, we are in the beginning month of the year 2018, however the never ending horror against the major ethnic groups continues unabatedly. A couple of days ago a killing horror happened in Woldia, Amhara region of Ethiopia. In just one day, tens of people have been mercilessly murdered by minority lead security forces while they are celebrating their sacred Epiphany festival. The ethnic minority dominated government is driving the country in to very disastrous way. Unless a miracle of solution comes from a concerned body and save the country, the future of the Ethiopia will be no different than that of Syria or the former Yugoslavia.

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